038
FXUS63 KAPX 241054
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
654 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A bit dreary and damp today/tonight

- Quieter weather for the rest of the week into the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Pattern/synopsis: Weak low pressure is near STL. This low will
deepen somewhat as it lifts slowly ne, reaching central lower MI
tonight. The low is forced in part by a shortwave trof moving
east across Superior late tonight, and in part by a closed 500mb
low crossing MO. The dominant big-picture trend is for a
somewhat deeper, and somewhat slower, system.

Forecast: Easterly flow off of Lk Huron is generating lake
effect clouds (MVFR) into ne lower MI. OSC briefly reported
precip (DZ) earlier in the morning. Area radars are showing an
area of bubbly mid-level returns from w central lower MI to ne
WI. Most of this is likely not reaching ground, but a few spots
could be. As the surface low moves toward AZO by dusk, and a
warm front also lifts into far southern lower MI. Though the
deepest moisture/best forcing remains just downstate, plenty
leaks into northern MI as the day proceeds. And that further
interacts with overlake instability, with 850mb temps around
10-11C over Lake Huron. There is more of a southerly component
to the 1000-850mb winds, and the longest fetch from Lk Huron
into eastern upper MI for much of the day. MlCape values are
quite limited, but values of 100-200j/kg are possible in ne
lower MI.

Pops will tend to increase from se to nw with time today. Pops
are higher downwind of Lk Huron, including eastern upper MI,
even though that is further north than better moisture fields.
Sct to numerous showers are progged for much of today and
tonight in ne lower/eastern upper MI, starting to diminish very
late tonight. Precip could and probably will switch nature,
from showery to drizzly and back again. There is also a slight
chance for thunder in ne lower MI. Further, 850-700mb
deformation/stretching on the north side of the approaching
surface low is certainly present. That could contribute to
localized healthy rainfall rates. This is particularly the case
this evening, with localized QPF in excess of 0.25" in se
portions of the forecast area.

Max temps today in the 60s to around 70f. Lows tonight in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel split flow pattern continues to occupy North America.
Southern stream flow currently influencing the Great Lakes region
will continue to push warmer than average temperatures for the long
term period.

Current troughing over the Mid-Mississippi Valley pass through the
Great Lakes region. Shortwave ridging builds this Wednesday and
beyond. This pattern supports surface high pressure to occupy
the CWA for the majority of the long term, resulting in quiet
weather and above average temperatures for late September.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

No impactful weather expected throughout the entirety of the
long term forecast period: Conditions are expected to remain
quiet and dry for the majority of the period. After a few
lingering showers finally diminish, surface high pressure will
begin to build this Wednesday. This patten supports clearing
skies with highs in the low to mid 70s for the next several days
and lasting through the remainder of the forecast period. Only
chances of precipitation is later next week as ensembles hint at
an additional trough moving into the Ohio Valley around the
Sunday/Monday timeframe. Guidance continues to struggle with a
solution next week most likely due to discrepancies in the exact
track of the ruminants of what will be Hurricane Helene.
Confidence along with messaging will remain low at this time
until future ensembles have a more detailed solution. Until
then, little if any precip is expected to persist though the
entirety of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Low pressure will move into southern lower MI tonight. East
winds off of Lake Huron is already generating IFR stratus in
APN. This will persist all day today, trending to LIFR tonight.
PLN/CIU will also see a mix to MVFR to IFR conditions develop
today. TVC will transition from VFR to MVFR, while MBL stays
mostly VFR. This all happens with gradually increasing coverage
of showers and DZ. APN has the best chance of seeing isolated
TSRA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JZ