312
FXUS63 KEAX 051737
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1237 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures expected today but significantly less humid.

- Potential for storms with heavy rainfall Friday night -
  Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Today - Friday: A drier air mass will move into the region today
behind the cold front that brought showers and storms to the region
Tuesday evening and overnight. Dewpoint temperatures through the day
will be in the low to mid 50s, nearly 20 degrees cooler than
yesterday. With temperatures near where they were Tuesday, the drier
air will be noticeable. Another shortwave trough and it associated
cold front will move into the region this evening. There will be
some moisture advection back into the area ahead of this front but
overall, it looks too dry for much, if any, additional showers or
storms, with the exception of extreme northern MO. Still, confidence
is not high enough to carry PoPs at this time. But that front will
reinforce the drier air mass over the region for Thursday and
most of the day Friday.

Friday night - Saturday Morning: Focus then turns to Friday night
into Saturday morning, with models showing potentially robust
convection moving into the area within strong northwesterly flow.
Model forecast MUCAPE values show there may be a sharp gradient
instability gradient setup across eastern KS. At the moment, CAPE
looks to be the limiting factor for severe convection. That said,
with convection likely initiating to our northwest, storms will
likely move southeastward along this gradient within the strong
northwesterly flow. And given that strong flow, we`ll see deep-layer
shear climb to 40-50 kts Friday night, oriented from the northwest.
This has the look of a potential strong MCS, depending on the
strength of the CAPE, for eastern KS and western MO. Additionally,
models are forecasting precipitable water values in excess of 1.5"
and potentially near 2". Ensemble guidance suggests this is above
the 90th percentile for the time of year. So there will also be
ample moisture for storms to work with. So in addition to the
potential for a strong MCS to move into the area, there may be a
flooding risk due to the high PW air mass moving into the region.

Next Week: Upper-level shortwave ridging will spread east early next
week. This will keep the area dry before a stronger shortwave trough
moves across the northern Plains Monday night into Tuesday. As the
cold front associated with shortwave trough moves southeastward
through the area Tuesday. This will bring the next chance for
showers and storms to the area. At the moment, the combination of
instability and shear doesn`t look favorable severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions through the period. West to northwest winds.
Winds will become more northwesterly at all TAF sites will be on
Thursday increase with gusts of 15 to 22 knots after 17z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...MAK