463
FXUS63 KEAX 172335
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
635 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Friday.

- Isolated strong to marginally severe storms will be possible
  on Thursday afternoon/evening.

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible this
  weekend into early next week. Locally moderate to heavy
  rainfall will be possible.

- Much cooler temperatures expected for Sunday into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The high over low blocking pattern remains over the eastern
CONUS with a mid level high over the eastern Great Lakes and a
mid level low over the Carolinas. Meanwhile, a relatively deep
closed low remains over the Bay Area of California with
associated troughing over the western CONUS with ridging and
warm 850 mb temp anomalies over the Plains. The blocking
pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to stunt the
eastern progress of the western trough. The result of all this
is another day of above normal temperatures, with 3 pm
temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows
tonight will be well above normal as well (mid 60s to near 70
degrees).

As we head into tomorrow, the western trough finally starts to
make some eastern progress, moving over the Rockies by 18z
tomorrow and eventually into the High Plains by tomorrow
evening. This will send a cold front into west central Kansas by
tomorrow evening. Any associated convection tomorrow should die
by the time it approaches far eastern Kansas, keeping our area
dry with afternoon highs again in the upper 80s to near 90
degrees. A few showers and storms could be possible overnight
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, especially for NE Kansas
and NW Missouri.

By midday Thursday, the mid level low previously centered over
the northern High Plains is progged to be centered over
southern Manitoba. An associated north-south oriented cold
front will approach our region from the west on Thursday
afternoon and evening, and could ignite thunderstorms within an
environment of around 1000 J/kg of ML CAPE and 20 to 30 knots
of 0-6 km bulk shear. This will yield a marginal risk for strong
to severe storms for Thursday. Otherwise, hot and relatively
humid conditions are expected again for Thursday, with afternoon
highs in the mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s.

Another trough is projected to move onshore across Southern
California Thursday night, and eventually move into Plains this
weekend, with enhanced west southwesterly mid level flow
overspreading our region (especially on Sunday). With dew
points in the upper 60s, PWATs approaching 2", forcing for
ascent, and modest to moderate instability, shower and
thunderstorm chances increase beginning Saturday morning, and
continues into Sunday, with locally moderate to heavy rainfall
possible. On Sunday, deep layer wind shear should increase to
40-45 knots, which could yield the potential for strong to
marginally severe storms. Models suggest troughing lingering
overhead through early next week, which keeps chances for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, as well as much
cooler temperatures. Rainfall totals per WPC range from 1 inch
to as much as 3 inches for Saturday morning through Monday
morning. The LREF is less excited, only showing around a 20%
chance for rainfall exceeding an inch across the region.
Meanwhile, the NBM probabilities at KC International show around
a 50% chance for rainfall exceeding an inch, with 24% chance to
exceed 2 inches. Regardless, it does look likely that much of
the region should get some very beneficial rainfall this weekend
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR conditions persist through the overnight. Winds remain
southerly becoming light after sunset. Storms to the west are
not expected to reach the area; however, residual low cloud
cover envelops the region tomorrow morning which may bring some
MVFR CIGs. Sky coverage is expected to be greater further
north. Southerly winds accelerate to around 10-12 kts after
sunrise.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Pesel