852
FXUS64 KEWX 180533 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1233 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

There is an upper level ridge over the southern plains this
afternoon. The low level flow is from the southeast over most of
South-Central Texas keeping a warm, moist airmass in place.
Temperatures range from the middle 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints
from the middle 60s to lower 70s. The upper ridge will remain in
place through the short term period. Southeasterly flow in the low
levels will also continue. This will keep the weather dry through
Wednesday night. The above normal temperatures will also continue.
Lows both tonight and tomorrow night will be mostly in the 70s.
Along the Rio Grande there may be record warm lows. High
temperatures Wednesday will be in the 90s. We do not have any
records in the forecast, but some places could be within a couple of
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Ridging at the 500mb level will strengthen and expand over South
Central Texas late week and result in continued hot and dry
conditions. By late in the weekend, a trough will approach from the
west, but with recent model trends forcing this trough further north,
our chance at any sort of rainfall or cold front have decreased. With
the ridge expected to hold strong, we may see some slightly cooler
temperatures with the passage of the trough to our north, but for the
most part, we will be holding with the status quo with afternoons in
the 90s and mornings in the upper 60s to middle 70s. There may yet be
some hope of the ridge finally breaking down by the middle of next
week, just outside this forecast package. For now, ensembles are not
too interested in a cooler pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for the next several hours across the
I-35 terminals before MVFR and IFR cigs build and affect them. Those
low cigs are forecast from 10z to 14z Wed. By 15z, cigs return to VFR
for the I-35 sites and remain through the night. For KDRT, MVFR cigs
are forecast for a few hours around 12z and back to VFR by 15z.
Southeast to south winds of 8 knots or less are expected overnight
into Wednesday morning. The southerly wind flow continues on
Wednesday afternoon with speeds around 7 to 9 knots and gusting up to
18 knots at KDRT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Record High Temperatures

                     Sep 17

Austin Bergstrom....99 (2005*)
Austin Camp Mabry...99 (2021)
Del Rio............103 (2021)
San Antonio.........98 (1997)

* denotes previous years

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              99  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  75  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            96  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  79  98  79 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  74  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           97  78  98  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...04
Aviation...17