Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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295 FXUS63 KICT 020759 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The active pattern will continue for Today through Tuesday across the region with strong to severe storms possible - A dry and quiet weather pattern looks to be in store for Wednesday through Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Storms will continue to develop over western and central Kansas early this morning. They will likely linger into the mid morning hours, aided by low level jet/moisture transport into a decent mid-level baroclinic zone. Meanwhile, current early morning satellite water vapor imagery shows a fairly healthy looking upper level wave over Arizona. This upper level wave will migrate east/northeast and reach western Oklahoma late this afternoon. A second upper level wave will move eastward from the Rockies across the northern plains. This northern system will push a cold front southward into Nebraska. These two waves will encounter deeper moisture continuing to surge northward per latest surface to 850mb polar orbiting satellite data products. Thunderstorms should ignite ahead of the cold front in Nebraska and parts of western Kansas southward into Texas panhandle later this afternoon. The storms will grow upscale into a eastward forward propagating MCS across Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some of this activity could spread into central Kansas later tonight with damaging winds as the main hazard. CAM models show another possible MCS developing further south in southwest Kansas/Oklahoma and moving east overnight(could be in response to the current southwestern upper wave). Also if that southern MCS scenario happens it could chew up the moisture and toss a wrench into Monday`s setup for Kansas making things less certain to predict. Models show a more robust upper level wave moving across the northern plains on Tuesday with an associated frontal boundary moving south into Kansas later in the afternoon. Storms look to develop along the front in the afternoon and become more numerous Tuesday night. Some of these storms could be strong to severe once again with damaging winds and torrential downpours as the main risk. Could also see some flooding problems arise for some locations that see repeated rounds of heavy rainfall for tonight through Tuesday night. All model ensemble means show good agreement with a pattern change to a northwest flow regime aloft for Wednesday-Saturday developing over the region. This should give way to dry weather and near to slightly above normal daytime highs. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VFR is anticipated through much of the period, but any isolated or widely scattered storms may result in reduced flight categories briefly. We could see a cluster of storms around sunrise in central KS but confidence in development remains low with no mention planned in our central KS TAFs. Otherwise, breezy southerly winds are expected to develop across the area on Sunday with some gusts exceeding 25 knots at times. Confidence in hit or miss storms on Sunday afternoon and evening remain low. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ AVIATION...MWM