040
FXUS61 KRLX 010236
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1036 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then disturbances
bring showers and storms Sunday into the new work week. Above
normal temperatures in store next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1040 PM Friday...

Made minor updates to overnight temperatures and valley fog
coverage, but overall the forecast remains on track. The
risk for patchy mountain valley frost continues at higher
elevations, with an SPS issued across northwest Pocahontas and
southeast Randolph counties to highlight this potential.

As of 840 PM Friday...

A quiet evening across the region courtesy of surface high pressure
that is currently centered near Clarksburg, with just a bit of
SCT cirrus across the southern/western portion of the CWA.
Another quiet, but cool night is in store across the region,
amid a bit of developing river valley (steam) fog, albeit less
widespread than last night given another day of drying. A rather
dry lower atmosphere will once again result in a rather quick
drop in temperatures following sunset, with overnight
temperatures trended a bit cooler with the evening update,
albeit still warmer than last night. This translates into low
temperatures in the 40s across the lowlands, with perhaps
isolated upper 30s in the typical valley cold spots across SE OH
into N WV. The high-elevation valleys in the northern mountains
will once again be the cold spot courtesy of katabatic flow,
with mid to upper 30s progged in the coldest locations. Patchy
frost is possible in isolated locations across Pocahontas/Randolph
counties. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 140 PM Friday...

Quiet weather continues as surface high pressure slowly shifts east
through Saturday afternoon. Dew points in the mountains will be a
few degrees higher than last night, so any high mountain valley
frost should be very patchy at best in cold air drainage.

Saturday will be hotter and more humid than today as southerly flow
starts to increase, but any precipitation should largely hold off
until Saturday night while the upper level ridge remains
overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1214 PM Friday...

A 500-mb shortwave and an associated surface low will approach from
the west Sunday, bringing another chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Cloudy skies will keep daytime temperatures in the
70s for most. Expect anywhere from 0.25-0.50" south of I-64 and 0.50-
0.75" for places north of I-64. Drier and warmer weather should
return Monday as the shortwave exits to the east and a ridge builds
aloft. Highs in the 80s will return across the lowlands with the
upper 70s expected in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1214 PM Friday...

With surface high pressure sliding to the east, unsettled weather
will return across the state for the rest of the week with
summertime heat and humidity building. Expect daily chances of
diurnal showers and thunderstorms with warm, southerly flow at the
surface and several weak disturbances passing aloft. It looks
like Wednesday will be the worst day for heat and humidity with
highs in the 80s for most and dew points in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. A large cold front will sweep across the eastern 1/3
of the country Thursday. Behind the cold front, temperatures
should settle down closer to average and precipitation chances
should begin to decrease.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 800 PM Friday...

VFR conditions will continue through the majority of this TAF
period. The one aviation concern will be with valley fog late
tonight (primarily river valleys), but in general, most fog is
not expected to impact our terminals. However, brief MVFR/IFR
VSBY restrictions at CRW/EKN/PKB near dawn on Saturday cannot
entirely be ruled out. Any fog that does develop overnight
lifts/dissipates by ~ 12Z Saturday. Saturday will feature
increasing mid/high level clouds from the southwest as the day
progresses.

Calm conditions are expected across much of the area tonight.
Light SSW to SSE surface flow develops on Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog tonight, high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy valley fog could cause brief VSBY
restrictions at CRW/EKN/PKB near dawn on Saturday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SAT 06/01/24
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday, then again at times late Tuesday into Thursday. IFR also
possible in post-rain stratus, and perhaps fog, late Sunday night
and early Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...JP/GW/LS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GW