Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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824 FXUS61 KRLX 281823 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 223 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and storms through Wednesday. Drying out Thursday into the weekend. Next chance for precipitation returns late Saturday night with showers lingering into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1140 AM Tuesday... Series of shortwaves to affect the area. One this afternoon, combined with peak heating, will generate showers and storms, mainly across the north. This will be followed by another series of waves, one Wednesday morning, followed by another later in the day. Overall, convection should be scattered in nature, and severe weather is not anticipated, with storms today not likely to get very tall due to a mid level cap in place. As with previous forecast thinking, fog tonight should be rather limited, but can`t be completely ruled out, particularly in areas that receive rain today. But overall thinking is any fog that forms should not be particularly dense in nature with incoming wave. Cooler Wednesday with increased cloud cover and shower activity. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Tuesday... Any lingering showers over the northeast mountains dissipate through Wednesday night with dry conditions expected through Friday night. Troughing over the east coast will yield temperatures around 5 degrees below normal for this time of the year with a rather dry airmass making it feel quite pleasant during the afternoons. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the lower elevations with mid 30s to mid 40s across the higher elevations. This could yield some patchy frost across the better protected mountain valleys Friday morning, but otherwise minimal weather concerns are expected. Ridging translating east into the Middle Ohio Valley during the day Friday will signal a return to warmer and more humid conditions for the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 220 PM Tuesday... Warm moist advection begins in earnest during the day Saturday as southwesterly flow increases. Precipitable water values increase to around 1.5 inches by Saturday night. A relatively weak wave emerging from the southern Rockies Thursday night arriving in the Middle Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday should provide upper level forcing for ascent and associated increasing H850 winds down low will provide some level of mass convergence at the nose of a LLJ. Mid- level lapse rates look marginal at best to support much conditional instability, but may see some build with daytime heating Sunday yielding some efficient rain makers. Forcing departs by Monday leaving the region in a weak flow regime as humidity lingers. This should yield mainly diurnally driven convection with slow moving convective cores. Will have to see what the soils look like when we get there after rain from Saturday night into Sunday, but some localized hydro issues would appear to be possible. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 115 PM Tuesday... Mainly VFR conditions for the TAF period, however, occasional showers and storms, are expected through about 01Z Wednesday, with brief MVFR conditions expected. Otherwise, bulk of precipitation will taper off after 01Z, but localized MVFR fog is possible in areas that receive rain today, as well as across parts of the northern mountains tonight. Conditions should briefly improve after 12Z in any areas where fog is able to form, however, an additional round of showers and storms will form again particularly after 09-15Z, with brief MVFR conditions in vicinity of showers/storms, and areas of MVFR possible across north central WV where greater chances for precipitation will exist. Gusty westerly winds in the teens to lower 20 kts will become light after 23Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/extent of showers and storms during the day may vary from the forecast. Areas of fog overnight may be more widespread than currently anticipated. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and storms on Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...SL