Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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919 FXUS61 KRLX 311137 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 737 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then disturbances bring showers and storms Sunday into the next work week. Above normal temperatures in store next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 740 AM Friday... Frost advisory will expire on time at 8 AM this morning with temperatures rising quickly with morning mixing across the mountain valleys. As of 605 AM Friday... GOES-R nighttime microphysics imagery evinces a somewhat more widepsread river valley fog than previously anticipated. The fog will lift and dissipate 730-9 AM. Temperatures in the northern mountain valleys were also low enough to support frost, at least away from rivers. The remainder of the forecast is on track with high pressure in control. As of 220 AM Friday... Early morning temperatures and the frost advisory appear to be on track. Nothing more than river valley steam fog is expected early this morning. High pressure surface and aloft promotes dry weather this period, with clear sky through much of today. Surface high pressure drifting east of the area tonight allows for return light east to southeast low level flow, while the mid-upper level ridge axis passing overhead later this afternoon and tonight allows high, thin cirrus to encroach from the west. Central guidance temperatures and dew points looked on or close, except dew points a little lower this afternoon, and temperatures and dew points a little lower in the valleys tonight. The low level return flow and high thin cirrus will again keep valley fog limited again despite higher dew points then this morning, but the higher dew points should keep mountain valley low temperatures high enough to preclude frost. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 220 AM Friday... To start off, high pressure fleets toward the east allowing a weak surface low to approach from the west by Saturday evening spreading chances of showers and storms into the area from west to east. This feature will be supported by an upper level short wave trough providing lift and moisture. Models have it moving northeast so there should be a weak frontal boundary moving through Sunday morning and into the afternoon. Showers and storms will be a possibility, however nothing severe looks to be possible at this time. Soundings are not impressive with very little shear and upper level wind support, along with lots of dry air aloft and low PWATS. Therefore not likely to have an excessive rainfall threat which is good because DCAPE is a little high and would cause the concern for downbursts. Other than that, no signal for strong to severe storms or even flooding issues. As the front kicks out toward the east, weak upper and surface high pressure will build in although unsettled weather will persist shortly afterwards with a southern stream disturbance forecast to affect the area Monday night into Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 600 AM Friday... The rest of Monday and Tuesday will likely see diurnal shower and storm activity before another system approaches the area on Wednesday. Long rang models are in good agreement on this system, however timing is way off and the GFS is the earliest with getting rid of a large cold front on Thursday, which could be strong and originating from a potent low forecast to be northwest of the area. Other models have it affecting the area into the weekend, delaying its exit. For these reasons, decided to accept central blended model guidance which equated to likely POPs and thunderstorm probability for both Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 605 AM Friday... GOES-R nighttime microphysics imagery evinces a somewhat more widepsread river valley fog than previously anticipated. This showed up intermittently at EKN and has also showed up at CRW. The fog should lift/dissipate 12-13Z. High pressure will otherwise promote mainly VFR conditions amid light flow this period. Calm conditions early this morning will give way to light north to northeast surface flow later this morning, and then calm to light and variable to southeast tonight. Light flow aloft through today will become light and variable to east tonight. This and high cloud should limit river valley steam fog tonight but, with higher dew points, it cannot be entirely ruled out. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog early this morning, high otherwise. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Burn off of fog first thing this morning could vary a bit. River valley steam fog overnight tonight may impact EKN and CRW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Tuesday. IFR possible in post-rain stratus, and perhaps fog, overnight Monday night and early Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ NEAR TERM...TRM/JP SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...TRM