Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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354 FXUS64 KTSA 271527 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1027 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1026 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Current forecast for today is on track. Only a few minor adjustments made to better reflect current trends. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Surface high pressure builds over the region today, making for a nice Memorial Day areawide. Skies will be clear, winds will be light, and temperatures will be warm as most locations warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. No rain or storms in the forecast for today for a welcome break to the unsettled pattern that has been endured through much of May. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 A pattern change to more northwesterly flow aloft is still on track through the middle part of the week as mid level ridging expands into the western CONUS. This will bring chances for multiple thunderstorms complexes to impact the area through Thursday. The initial wave on Monday night into Tuesday could mainly stay focused west of the forecast area across central Oklahoma, with a gradual spread eastward for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The western ridge breaks down somewhat toward the latter part of the week with more zonal to southwesterly flow aloft spreading back over the Plains. Several disturbances look to move through the area, with near daily thunderstorm chances continuing into the weekend as the warm, moist airmass remains in place. Some semblance of severe weather threat will likely set up, along with the threat of heavy rainfall. Some guidance indicates a frontal boundary will move into the area late next weekend and possibly provide a more focused severe threat, but many differences exist this far out for any definitive area that might see a higher end severe threat. Temperatures through the period will depend on the evolution of thunderstorms every night, but will mainly stay near seasonal averages for this time of year. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Patchy fog will continue in a few locations before lifting by mid morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with light north winds becoming northeasterly as weak high pressure continues to build over the region this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 90 63 84 62 / 0 10 10 30 FSM 92 65 87 64 / 0 0 10 20 MLC 92 64 85 64 / 0 10 20 40 BVO 88 59 84 57 / 0 10 10 20 FYV 87 60 85 59 / 0 0 10 20 BYV 85 60 82 58 / 0 10 10 10 MKO 88 64 83 62 / 0 10 10 30 MIO 85 60 82 57 / 0 10 0 10 F10 90 63 82 62 / 0 10 20 40 HHW 92 65 82 65 / 0 20 30 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...12