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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191635
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1135 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Ongoing ceilings
in NW AR should scatter by mid afternoon. Northerly winds will
become light overnight, increasing again mid to late morning
tomorrow from the southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 947 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure remains centered north of the area, leading
to persistent northerly winds today with some gustiness, although
not to yesterday`s degree. Area of low clouds across far northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will continue to drift
southeastward through the rest of the morning and into the
afternoon, with some decrease in coverage expected by the
afternoon. Sky cover forecast was updated with these expectations
in mind. Afternoon temperatures will be around 10 degrees below
normal, despite plenty of sun in most places. Updates already out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 531 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A brief period of VFR cigs possible at the NW AR sites early
in the period. Otherwise, the remaining TAF elements to remain
VFR through the entire period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The main item of interest in the forecast now shifts to the
weekend rain/storm chances with the next upper level storm system.

As has been shown for several days, model data continues to bring
the next upper wave in the flow, currently moving onshore into
California, across the Desert Southwest and into the southern
Plains on Saturday. Lift from the system will bring widespread
rains to the region, including the drought stricken western
Plains. The main trend in the data noticed this morning was a
slight increase in the speed of the broad upper cyclone. As a
result, rain chances ramp up quicker, now late Friday night, and
wind down quicker, tapering off quicker on Sunday. With the warm
sector still expected to stay south, isolated storm mention as
maintained across the south and east. While some locally heavy
rainfall, possibly exceeding an inch in some areas, is possible,
the system still appears to be too progressive to generate any
major flooding issues.

After this system departs, a front is progged to push into the
region early next week, with some potential for rain showers. The
models diverge for the middle to latter part of next week. The
preference is to keep the forecast dry until things can get sorted
out.

A back door push of cooler air into the region overnight will lead
to even cooler high temps today, in fact several degrees below
average for this time of year. Below average temps will continue
to be the rule thru the weekend, especially when the clouds/rain
moves in. Some rebound back to near average is expected early next
week ahead of the next front.

Lacy

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....22