578
FXUS64 KTSA 121530
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1030 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day
   through at least Monday, with potential for locally heavy
   rainfall.

 - An active weather regime continues into next week with daily thunderstorm
   chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

As of late morning, an elevated boundary around 700-mb that has
been the focus for ongoing shower and storm development across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas has become less defined.
In response, the southern portion of the precip was expanding
southward, while additional showers and storms were developing
northward up toward the Kansas border. Flow aloft was still
nearly parallel to the remnants of the elevated boundary, though
had become slightly more southerly as a mid level low/MCV moves
east out of the Texas Oklahoma Panhandles. At the same time,
precipitable water values remained greater than 1.7 inches with
localized areas in excess of 2 inches. Thus, areas of heavy
rainfall remained common across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.

Through this afternoon, shower and thunderstorm development is
forecast to continue across the CWA with the remnants of the
elevated boundary over the region, a surface boundary currently
setting up from southwest Oklahoma into Pawnee/Osage/Washington
counties of northeast Oklahoma, and the approach of the mid level
low/MCV. This surface boundary looks to be more of a wind shift
ahead of the true nearly stationary cold front holding just to
the northwest. By mid to late afternoon, the main focus for storm
development could be along this surface boundary with the mid
level low. Have adjusted PoP through this afternoon accordingly.

Both surface and elevated instability interacting with the mid
level low and associated boundaries will create limited severe
potentials. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts are the primary
severe threat, with a secondary threat for hail. Also, with the
amount of moisture over the CWA, a heavy rain threat with
increasing flash flood potential will continue. Thus, the flood
watch has been expanded across the CWA into Sunday. Additional
rainfall amounts through this afternoon of a half inch to locally
in excess of 2 inches is forecast across the much of the CWA.

Temperatures this afternoon are expected to remain below the
seasonal average with ongoing cloud cover and precip. High temps
in the 80s remain probable and have only made slight tweaks to
hourly temp/dewpoint trends based on observations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A slow moving upper trough will remain over the area through at
least Monday and possibly Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will continue through that time, with the potential
for locally heavy rainfall from time to time. The heaviest rainfall
may end up favoring the overnight and morning time frames, and
additional flood watches may be needed during the coming days.
Temperatures will remain well below normal into the first part of
next week.

Once the upper trough lifts out of the area, shower and storm
coverage will diminish for the middle to latter part of next week,
but not completely go away. Temperatures will also warm back to
closer to the seasonal averages for the latter half of the week. A
weak cold front may approach the area late in the week, but the
latest data does cast some doubt on this as upper ridging becomes
more dominant by that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will will continue at times
through the day. If CAM guidance is to be believed, the better
chances of storms will be through about 15Z, and then again in
the afternoon after 20Z. Most areas will see ceilings develop, but
they should generally remain at or above 3 kft except in heavy
showers today. Visibility could also briefly drop but will
generally remain 3 SM or greater otherwise. Winds will be out of
the south at 5-15 kts, but may be gusty and erratic near storms.
A few of the storms will produce locally heavy rain and severe
weather potential. Ceilings and visibility will then drop Sunday
morning with MVFR criteria or below.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  70  83  70 / 100  50  60  30
FSM   88  73  87  73 /  80  50  70  20
MLC   87  71  85  70 /  70  60  80  30
BVO   87  69  83  68 /  60  50  50  20
FYV   85  69  84  68 / 100  50  70  20
BYV   86  69  85  69 /  90  30  70  20
MKO   85  70  83  70 /  90  50  70  30
MIO   87  69  83  69 /  50  40  60  20
F10   85  69  82  70 /  90  60  80  30
HHW   90  72  88  71 /  50  60  60  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06