Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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111 FXUS66 KMFR 221802 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1102 AM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...
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(22/18Z TAFs) Aside from some lingering LIFR ceilings over portions of the marine waters and along the coast south of Gold Beach, VFR conditions prevail across the region. Conditions may improve briefly south of Gold Beach this afternoon but confidence is low in the duration and extent. Otherwise, VFR will prevail for all other areas through the afternoon. Expect the typical increase in afternoon breezes today, though slightly enhanced due to an incoming upper level trough. Late this afternoon and overnight, this trough will push the marine layer back along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin overnight tonight. Expect the return of LIFR/IFR conditions along the coast, especially north of Cape Blanco between 23z-03z, lifting to IFR around 04-06z. Conditions in the Umpqua Basin are expected to be MVFR, including at Roseburg (KRBG). The marine layer does not look deep enough to "spill over" the Rogue-Umpqua Divide, but there could be some scattered clouds that develop over the Illinois and Applegate Valleys around sunrise Sunday morning. /BR-y
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/Issued 828 AM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ UPDATE...Updated marine discussion and small craft advisory. No other changes were made this morning. MARINE...Updated 825 AM Saturday, June 22, 2024...The thermal trough will weaken today, but steep seas will persist south of Cape Blanco into this afternoon. With the wind wave transitioning into fresh swell and beginning to decay, we shortened the duration of the small craft advisory. A weak front will bring a surge of stratus late today into Sunday with light showers possible mainly across the northern waters. Sunday evening, the thermal trough will begin to build again and steep to very steep seas are again expected. Steep, advisory seas are possible for a wide area south of Cape Blanco, with the highest confidence area for very steep seas being south of Brookings. This next pulse in the thermal trough is expected to last through Monday before another front disrupts it either Tuesday or Wedensday. -Miles PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 AM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing some marine stratus across portions of the coast and offshore. Meanwhile there is some higher cloud cover occurring across portions of southern Oregon while northern California is observing mainly clear skies. We are the influence of a weak trough which is exiting the Pacific Northwest, and another trough will pass through southern Oregon later today into Sunday. This trough may cause a marine push to bring light drizzle to portions of the Coos and Douglas County Coast this morning, but all other areas will remain dry. The main concern with this trough will be the breezy winds with continued dry conditions. If this were taking place in August or September, we might be a bit more worried; but local fire agencies are generally reporting moderate fire danger with grass-like vegetation more receptive to catching fire than leaves and other shrubs at this point in time. That being said, we have seen some fire activity over the last couple of days, but in general conditions do not warrant additional products like a red flag warning due to the moderate nature of the fire danger. That being said, breezy winds may still impact ongoing fires like the Little Applegate fire this weekend. Since the winds will be from the northwest, smoke may push toward the southeast; but most of the smoke will be relatively well-mixed and will only cause the biggest impacts to areas immediately downwind and close to the fire. The weather remains somewhat unsettled as the parent low pushing through the northern half of the Pacific Northwest. This will bring increased rain chances to portions of the coast and Umpqua Basin with very light rain showers possible. More aptly, this low will keep temperatures a little bit cooler with today being the hottest day. Temperatures will gradually cool down before dropping several degrees closer to normal for the latter half of the work week. -Schaaf FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM Friday, June 21, 2024...Previous fire weather discussion issued 145 PM Friday...For areas west of the Cascades, over the next couple days critical conditions are not expected. This will be anchored by good humidity recoveries (80% and higher) in valleys and moderate to good humidity recoveries over upper slopes and ridges (50-70%) overnight. Afternoon humidities in this area will bottom out in the mid to upper teens to 20 percent, with these minimum humidity values trending similar this afternoon to Saturday afternoon. Some drizzle in the coast range and across Douglas County Saturday night, will continue to keep concerns low. East of the Cascades, weather conditions are a bit different, as brief durations of critical wind & humidity conditions Saturday and possibly Sunday are possible. These would be in eastern zone 624 between Bly and Lakeview, as well as around Alturas in Modoc County. This will be caused by a dry front moving through late Saturday into Sunday. The driest conditions are expected Saturday near 10%, while the strongest breezes are expected Sunday afternoon, with some areas gusting to 30 mph. No lightning is expected over the forecast area through at least Tuesday. -Miles
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&& .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376. && $$ MCB/BMS/MNF