Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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034 FXUS61 KCAR 231748 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 148 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach today lifting a warm front north across the region. The low will cross the area tonight into Monday followed by high pressure on Tuesday. A cold front will approach on Wednesday and cross the area Wednesday night. High pressure will build in from the west on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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145 pm update... Steady heavy rain remains over northern areas early this afternoon along H8 warm front. Surface warm front remains back over New England with storm developing along the pre-frontal trough in Upstate NY. Tornado Watch has been issued for a good chunk of New England, along with far western Maine. Airmass over our area remains fairly stable with warm advection aloft helping to keep any convection rooted in the boundary layer. This likely to be our saving grace as any surface-based storms moving in from the west will become elevated with time late afternoon into the evening. This does not mean that storms will fall apart once they get toward western zones but will tend to weaken with time. Cannot rule out lightning strikes, as plenty of instability will be present aloft, but as far as the threat for a strong to severe storm surviving into the Bangor Region looks pretty low at this time. However pw values will continue to run above the 90th percentile and with very efficient rain occurring this evening, expect that locally heavy rainfall remains the main threat with this convection this afternoon and this evening. No major chgs with this update. Prev discussion blo... Low pressure approaching from the west today will pull abundant moisture north over a warm frontal boundary pushing north across the area. The very moist air with precipitable water approaching 2 inches will lift over the front producing an expanding area of moderate to heavy rain initially over west central areas this morning, then expanding north through midday. Strong thunderstorms are likely in western New England. Some of these storms may weaken and stray into southwestern parts of our region late this afternoon but at that point the instability will be elevated and they will likely not be a severe as the storms to the west. Surface low pressure will push east into the Maritimes tonight. However, the frontal boundary will hang back across our region with the upper low still to our west in the Eastern Great Lakes. Some rain and drizzle will continue, mostly north, this evening and isolated embedded thunderstorms will be possible. Showers will diminish later tonight. Otherwise, tonight will remain mostly cloudy with some fog and scattered showers as a dry intrusion pushes into the area in the upper levels. Total rainfall estimates range from around 1 inch over southern areas to an inch and a half across the north. Locally heavier amounts are possible in any convective bands.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The center of the low responsible for the plentiful rain in the near term will slowly move across southern Maine and into the Downeast region through the day on Monday. With the slow low progression, the chance for rain showers will continue through the day on Monday across the majority of the forecast area. As the low moves across the Penobscot Bay area, northeast flow around the north side of the low will lead to upslope flow into the Longfellow mountains. This orographic lift will act to enhance any rain showers late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, and bring one final round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. With an established stable boundary layer behind the Sunday night rain, instability will be limited during the day on Monday. CAPE values should be low, likely remaining below 500 J/kg at best. Mid level lapse rates could be marginal around 6 to 7 C/km, but with so little to work with, thunderstorms will be isolated at best. High pressure will begin to build into the area later Monday night into the day on Tuesday, with rain chances diminishing from NW to SE, clearing Washington county late in the day on Tuesday. A narrow ridge of high pressure will set up over the area, briefly clearing skies Tuesday afternoon before clouds move in again from the west ahead of the next system. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The next low pressure system will approach from the west on Wednesday. During the day on Wednesday, the state will be in the right exit region of the approaching jet streak aloft, and the jet streak at this time may only be around 100 to 110 kts. The subsidence out ahead of this synoptic feature will limit the threat for diurnally driven convection Wednesday afternoon, despite guidance suggesting an increase in 500 mb vorticity. A cold front will begin pushing across the forecast area Wednesday evening through Wednesday night. Current consensus among guidance suggests that the front will slow as it makes its way through northern New England, allowing for a center of low pressure to ride up along the stalling front, crossing our CWA early Thursday morning. This setup could lead to another round of increased rainfall across the center of the forecast area. Additionally, though still in the day 4 to day 5 timeframe, there is some signal of greater CAPE and shear associated with this mesoscale setup. This in turn could drive nocturnal thunderstorms and nocturnal locally heavy rain. With this particular synoptic and mesoscale setup, being overnight will not greatly inhibit the threat for storms, though if these features slow down and the same setup happens 12 hours later on Thursday afternoon, there could be an increased risk for severe weather. High pressure will return through the end of the week, with temperatures remaining around average for this time of the year behind recent rain and cold front passage. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR over all terminals tonight with LIFR possible over Downeast terminals and possibly FVE. Thunderstorms will be possible at HUL, BGR and BHB with moderate to heavy rainfall over northern Aroostook terminals. BGR and BHB likely to see LLWS through 07z tonight with HUL tapping into LLWS between 23-02z. SHORT TERM: Mon: IFR cigs to continue through the day with light to moderate rain showers across all terminals. Winds NE at 5 to 10 kts. Mon night - Tues night: Conditions quickly improving to VFR from north to south across all terminals. Winds N to NW around 5 kts shifting SW Tues evening into Tues night. Wed: Generally VFR across all terminals, with MVFR cigs moving in to Aroostook terminals from the NW through the day. Winds SW 5 to 15 kts. Wed night: MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. Winds SW at 5 to 10 kts with higher gusts possible in thunderstorms. Vis could become LIFR in any heavy rain. Thurs: Improving to VFR with lingering showers possible. Winds W at 5 to 10 kts.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SW winds will increase to SCA today and remain SCA tonight. Humid air over the colder waters will likely result in fog and mist across the waters today into tonight. Seas 3-4 ft today building to 6-7 ft tonight in response to the southwesterly. SHORT TERM: Seas will likely continue 5 to 7 ft through Monday night, decreasing late. Winds will gust up to around 20 kts during this time, though gusts up to 25 kts are possible in any rain showers. Winds and seas will subside on Tuesday, but as another storm approaches on Wednesday, gusts will surpass 25 kts once more with seas responding into the second half of the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/Buster Short Term...AStrauser Long Term...AStrauser Aviation...Bloomer/Buster/AStrauser Marine...Bloomer/Buster/AStrauser