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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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462 FXUS61 KAKQ 281902 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 302 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds north of the region through this morning, then slides off the southern New England coast for this afternoon into tonight, providing dry weather. Heat and humidity return for Saturday and Sunday, with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night. A cold front drops across the area late Sunday night through Monday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... High pressure to the N slid offshore this afternoon and is now centered off the coast of New England. Pretty quiet today with dry weather and scattered to broken CU across the area. Temps have risen into the mid to upper 80s for much of the area, but breezy onshore winds have kept coastal locations cooler. Areas along the coast are showing the low 80s and the Eastern Shore only in the upper 70s so far. Expect another degree or two to be added before the afternoon is over. Cloud cover will temporarily thin out later this evening, then build back in after midnight through sunrise. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s for much of the area with lower 70s in the SE and immediately along the bay. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday with more humidity. - Dangerous heat indices likely across parts of the area on Sunday as heat and humidity peak ahead of a cold front. - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The sfc high pressure will be off the New England coast for tonight into early Sat, with some moisture returning as a weak warm front lifts through the area. Will maintain a dry fcst, but an isolated shower could come up into NE NC by Sat morning. Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Heat and increasing humidity return Sat, as high pressure shifts farther out to sea resulting in low level flow becoming SSE. This will allow 850mb temps to rise to ~20C, which supports widespread lower to mid 90s inland/Piedmont. Highs near the coast are expected to be in the upper 80s to near 90 (lower to mid 80s at the MD beaches), as there will still be a bit of an onshore component to the flow. This combined with sfc dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. There is a slight chc to low chc of aftn showers/tstms over the Piedmont in the vicinity of a subtle lee-side trough. Although mid to upper level height rises will act to suppress more widespread convection despite the fact that there will be a decent amount of sfc-based instability present. Another upper trough and cold front will approach the area on Sun, and that cold front will cross the area Sun evening into Mon morning. The LLVL flow will increase out of the SW on Sun ahead of the front, allowing 850mb temps to rise to 20-23C. This will result in hot and humid conditions with mid 90s expected inland/Piedmont, and 88-94 near the coast (morning lows will be in the mid to locally upper 70s). With dew pts in the mid 70s in most areas during peak heating, dangerous heat indices of 105-107F are in the forecast. Note that the dew point forecast continues to be a couple degrees lower than NBM and is more in line with MOS values. In addition, sctd to numerous tstms are expected area-wide from Sun aftn-Sun night along and ahead of the cold front. Tstms will diminish from NW to SE late Sun night. Given the heat and humidity/ample instability, could see localized damaging wind gusts with any storms that form (mainly during the aftn/evening). Lows Sun night in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Key Message: - A brief break in the heat is likely early next week before very hot weather potentially returns by Independence Day. A slight reprieve in the heat is likely early next week in the wake of the cold front, as the 00z/28 EPS and GEFS continue to depict below average 850mb temperature anomalies Mon and Tue. However, the ensemble guidance also surges the heat back into the region by the middle of next week just prior to Independence Day, with forecast highs well into the 90s for much of the area. Other than a few lingering showers in NE NC Mon morning, dry wx is expected through next Wed. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday... SCT cloud cover is present across the FA this afternoon with cloud bases around 3-4kft. Have seen a few instances of brief MVFR with thicker patches of clouds, but otherwise VFR today. Cloud cover will temporarily scatter out this evening, then build back toward BKN after midnight. Guidance favors MVFR across most TAF sites late tonight into early Sat. Cannot rule out IFR at RIC during the early morning hours. ENE winds will continue to be gusty along the coast through the afternoon. Winds turn to the SE late tonight. High pressure and mainly dry conditions will prevail for today through at least Sat morning. Sctd showers/tstms are likely Sun into Sun night. High pressure and drier conditions return for Mon. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Key messages: - Generally sub-SCA conditions with periods of breezy onshore/southerly winds this evening through the weekend. - A period of SCA conditions is very likely on Monday with northerly winds behind a cold front. - Moderate risk of rip currents through Saturday. The secondary cold front is south of the waters this afternoon with high pressure centered south of Long Island. There is still a decent pressure gradient in place, which is resulting in E-NE winds around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt over the marine area. Winds become SE and remain near 15 kt this evening-tonight as the high pushes offshore before becoming SSE on Saturday. Could see a period of low-end SCA conditions on the bay late Sat evening-Sat night as the winds become more southerly and increase to 15-20 kt. Local wind probs show a 40- 70% chc of sustained 18 kt winds between 8 PM Sat-4AM Sun (highest on the mid/upper bay). Winds diminish to 10-15 kt and become SSW by mid to late Sun AM. A decently strong summer cold front looks to approach the area Sunday before crossing the waters from N-S between 4-10 AM Monday morning. Scattered to numerous tstms are expected Sun aftn through the first part of Sun night, which will likely necessitate SMWs (a few of the storms could even produce 50 kt wind gusts). Sub-SCA outside of any storms from Sun-late Sun evening. However, there will be decent cool/dry advection following the cold FROPA Monday morning, which will allow N winds to increase to ~20 kt (with frequent gusts around or just above 25 kt). SCAs will likely be needed for all of the Ches Bay, Lower James, and maybe even the upper rivers/coastal waters. Local wind probs show nearly a 100% chc of sustained 18 kt winds Mon AM, with low (~20%) probs of sustained 25 kt winds. Waves/seas 1-3 ft/2-4 ft this afternoon. Seas generally 3-4 ft this weekend with 1-3 ft waves. Seas could build to 5 ft S of Cape Charles on Monday following the cold FROPA (with 3-4 ft waves). Sub- SCA waves and seas are expected from Mon night through the middle of next week. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all Atlantic- coast beaches in the FA through Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...AM SHORT TERM...ERI/TMG LONG TERM...ERI/TMG AVIATION...AM MARINE...ERI