Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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034 FXUS61 KAKQ 011955 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 355 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes tonight and becomes centered off the coast on Tuesday, keeping below normal temperatures and dry conditions in place. Warmer but dry conditions prevail Wednesday, with heat and humidity returning late in the week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Monday... - Key Message: Dry, pleasant with below average temperatures tonight/Tuesday. The latest WX analysis depicts >1025mb sfc high pressure, centered across the Great Lakes, continuing to build SE into the local area. Aloft, the flow is NW in the wake of the departing upper trough. A refreshingly cool dry airmass has spread over the local area with temperatures mainly in the mid 70s to near 80F, dew pts in the 50s, and N winds of 10-20 mph. This is a dramatic change from 24 hrs when some areas were experiencing heat indices ~110F. SCT-BKN cumulus will diminish over the next few hrs leaving a mainly clear sky this evening/overnight. The sfc high is forecast to move ESE overnight, becoming centered across the NE CONUS early Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will average in the mid 50s to around 60F well inland, with low-mid 60s closer to the coast . Light or clam winds overnight inland, with onshore flow of 5-10mph SE VA/NE NC at the coast. The sfc high will become centered along the coast from southern New England to the Delmarva Tuesday aftn, keeping an easterly flow in place in the low levels. Mainly sunny in the morning with SCT aftn cumulus. A little warmer but still comfortable, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast, and in the mid 80s inland/Piedmont. Dew pts remain in the 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM EDT Monday... The sfc high will sit just off the New England and Mid Atlc coast Tue night and Wed. Clear to partly cloudy and still rather comfortable Tue night, with lows in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. The models show good consensus for the return of the upper ridge over the SE CONUS by Wed, as the sfc high is slow to push farther offshore. Still enough onshore flow to keep the significant heat away despite temperatures warming back to about average. Highs mainly in the upper 80s inland (lower 80s at the coast), with dew pts in the lower 60s. Generally mostly sunny again. Dry and turning more humid Wed night with lows in the mid 60s to near 70F. The sfc high will be far enough offshore Thursday/Independence Day to allow for an increasing southerly flow, with hotter temperatures and increasing humidity (though not to the level of what occurred on Sunday). Highs will be into the mid 90s inland with upper 80s/lower 90s at the coast. Dew pts in the upper 60s/lower 70s will lead to heat indices in the upper 90s to ~103F (but should be below heat advisory criteria). Some late aftn instability develops with 20-40% chance for mainly late aftn/evening tstms (highest PoPs NW). Partly cloudy and warm/humid Thursday night with lows in the low-mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... - Key Message: Heat and humidity return. After a nice break from the heat/humidity, there remains strong model consensus for another round of hot and humid weather Friday through at least the upcoming weekend. The upper ridge will initially be positioned from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas, slowly shifting E off the SE coast over the weekend. This will keep an series of upper troughs well off to our NW through the weekend (over the upper midwest/northern Great Lakes). Rather weak flow at the sfc with high pressure offshore will be conducive to a general SSW low level flow, but with some seabreeze development possible. Overall, highs look to average in the mid-upper 90s inland, and 90-95F closer to the coast Fri- Sat, and perhaps a few degrees lower Sun-Mon as a weak cold front stalls or washes out in the vicinity of the area. Have gone a little below the typical high bias shown by NBM dew pts, but still expect them to be back in the low-mid 70s for the period, which would yield heat indices in the 100-105F range. As for PoPs, expect daily chances for isolated/sctd mainly aftn/evening tstms (PoPs 20-40%), with the best chance in the piedmont and perhaps with the seabreeze although with a lot of uncertainty at this range. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions at the TAF sites through the 18Z TAF period. SCT-BKN Cumulus diminish towards sunset with mainly SKC overnight. NNE winds gusting to 20-25kt SE coastal areas this aftn, diminishing to 5-10kt overnight. Inland, NNE winds gusting to ~20kt drop off and become light and variable tonight. Mainly SKC Tuesday morning, with SCT aftn clouds. Tue winds will be easterly, 5-10kt inland and 10-15kt near the coast in SE VA/NE NC. Mainly VFR conditions continue through Thursday outside of some patchy ground fog early wed/Thu morning (most of this will not affect main terminals). Widely scattered showers/tstms possible late aftn/evening Thu and again Friday. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been extended until early evening (7PM/23z) for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, Currituck Sound, and southern Atlantic coastal waters. Cooler and much drier air continues to spill southward across the waters in the wake of this morning`s cold front. 1026mb high pressure is centered over Michigan with a weak inverted trough noted just east of the higher terrain from NC into VA. Winds are out of the N or NNW across the waters this afternoon with continued 15-20 kt flow across the Ches Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound. Offshore, winds are not as strong, generally N 10-15 kt. Waves in the bay are generally 2-3 ft while seas offshore range from 3-4 ft N to 4-6 ft S. Have extended SCA headlines in the aforementioned areas until 23z/7pm with continued cool/dry advection and hi-res guidance showing 15-20 kt flow persisting into the early evening. High pressure builds closer to the area tonight with decreasing winds. N or NE flow will continue for SE VA and NE NC waters this evening and SCA headlines may need to be extended further as NE winds almost always result in prolonged higher seas than guidance would suggest. Waves in the bay should subside to 1-3 ft by tonight. The majority of the work week will feature benign boating conditions as high pressure gradually becomes anchored offshore, allowing winds to transition from E-SE-S. By Thursday, the next cold front will attempt to move toward the region from the Ohio Valley with lee troughing over inland VA allowing the pressure gradient along the coast to tighten modestly. The chance for showers and storms will also increase late week into the weekend with associated enhancements to local winds/waves/seas. Moderate rip current risk is forecast for the southern beaches on Tuesday with a low risk for the northern beaches. A low rip risk is forecast for all beaches on Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... June 2024 Preliminary Temperature data: - Site: Avg Temp/Departure - RIC: 78.8 (+3.8) (4th warmest) - ORF: 79.0 (+2.3) (5th warmest) - SBY: 74.6 (+1.9) (not top 10) - ECG: 76.9 (+0.7) (not top 10) Rainfall was below average, but with locally heavy rain on the 30th, no site ranked among the top 10 driest. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>634-638-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...LKB/TMG AVIATION...LKB MARINE...RHR CLIMATE...