490
AXNT20 KNHC 280837
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest AL95 Gale Warning: Showers and thunderstorms continue to
show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave
located several hundred nautical miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands near 09.5N38W. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 35W and 38W, and from
04N to 12N between 38W and 43W. Winds are currently 20 to 30 kt
with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is likely to form over the next day or two. This system is
expected to move westward at 15 to 20 kt towards the Windward
Islands. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system. There is a high chance of tropical
cyclone formation for the next 2 to 7 days. A gale warning has
been issued beginning Sat afternoon, with storm conditions
possible beginning Sun afternoon as the feature moves into
portions of the Tropical N Atlantic offshore waters zones.
Building seas will occur with increasing winds.
Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for further details.

Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central
America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic
circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in
Central America. Latest computer model guidance continues to
suggest high precipitation amounts through early next week. As
the system continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls
are expected at the eastern areas of Honduras and Nicaragua
through Sunday. These rainfalls will shift over Belize, eastern
Guatemala and Southern Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico during the
weekend and early next week. It is recommended that residents in
the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information
from their local meteorological weather agencies. Please refer to
the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East Pacific at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall
information along the Pacific coastal areas of these nations.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W/21W from 13N
southward, and moving west at around 15 kt. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 20W
and 25W.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 15N southward
through AL95 mentioned in the Special Feature section, and moving
west around 10 kt. Associated convection is described above.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 20N southward,
and moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 16N to 20N between 51W and 54W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W/84W from southwest
of the Cayman Islands southward through a broad low pressure
(AL94) near Honduras-Nicaragua coastal border to eastern Costa
Rica. The whole system is moving westward at around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 12N
to 20N between 79W and 86W. Some development of this system is
possible over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward across 09N25W
through Invest AL95 near 09.5N38W to 11N47W. A diffuse ITCZ
continues westward from 11N47W to 11N53W. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is within 90 nm of the coast of Africa from 05N
to 11N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N
between 26W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from a 1015 mb high in the east
central Gulf near 26N87W. Gentle to moderate southerly return flow
dominates the basin, along with seas of 1 to 3 ft, locally 4 ft
near 21.5N91W and 29.5N87W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in
the SW Gulf S of 21N.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through this afternoon supporting light to gentle winds and
slight seas over the eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the western half
of the basin. Winds and seas may increase over the central and
west-central Gulf tonight through Sun night as a broad area of low
pressure, with some potential for tropical cyclone development
reaches the area. Conditions are forecast to improve Mon through
Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning associated with Invest AL95 and on the potential for heavy
rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America.

Convergent southerly winds along with the broad low and tropical
wave near 83W (AL94) are triggering scattered to numerous
thunderstorms south of 19N between 79W and 88W, including over
portions of Nicaragua, far eastern Honduras and Belize. Fresh to
strong winds are occurring near Invest AL94, along with seas of 5
to 7 ft. Mainly moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail
across the remainder of the basin along with seas of 3 to 5 ft,
except gentle to moderate southerly winds in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure over the western
Caribbean Sea will move west-northwestward. Some development of
this system is possible over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
Expect moderate to fresh trade winds through Mon night, with the
exceptions of fresh to strong southeast winds over the far western
Caribbean through Sat night, and light to gentle winds over the
southwestern Caribbean. As described in the Special Features
section, winds and seas are expected to increase in the Tropical
N Atlantic Sun, the eastern Caribbean Mon, then the central
Caribbean Tue and Tue night as a strong tropical wave, possibly a
tropical cyclone, moves through. Storm conditions are possible
near this feature in the Tropical N Atlantic Sun evening,
spreading westward through time.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Invest
AL95 and an associated gale warning.

A surface trough is northeast of the Bahamas from 29N72W to 23N75W
with scattered thunderstorms from 23N to 26N between 71W and 77W.
Additional convection is north of 25N between 62W and 67W. A
broad, elongated upper-level low near 28N50W is producing widely
scattered convection north of 25N between 48W and 55W. Refer to
the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A broad surface ridge stretches southwestward from a 1029 mb
Azores High across 31N55W across the central Bahamas to the Great
Bahama Bank. This feature is promoting moderate to fresh trades
from 10N to 30N between the coast of Africa through the Cabo Verde
Islands and 55W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north
of 10N, with light to gentle winds south of 10N. Seas are 5 to 7
ft in the area of moderate to fresh trades, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere
east of 60W, and 3 to 5 ft west of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will
remain in control of the weather pattern during the forecast
period producing mainly a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
with moderate seas NE of the Bahamas. Winds and seas may begin to
increase over the far southeastern waters late Sat through Mon in
advance of a strong tropical wave, possibly a tropical cyclone,
that is expected to track in a general westward motion into the
Caribbean Sea Mon through Tue night.

$$
Lewitsky