Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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140 FXUS61 KBGM 230740 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 340 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving cold front will move across the area overnight leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms into Thursday. There will be a brief break Friday before the next system brings another round of showers and thunderstorms to start the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 645 PM Update... Some thunderstorms remain present but the severe threat has diminished across CNY. The watch was cancelled for all NY counties, but does remain for the counties that it was issued for in NEPA. Another line of storms has swept across PA and is now moving into the region. PoPs were updated based on current radar activity. The CAMs are still struggling but the HREF, NBM, and some manual edits seemed to come up with a reasonable solution over the next few hours. Temperatures have cooled significantly after the storms passed through. Most are now in the 70s. Hourly temps and dewpts were touched up to better reflect the latest observations. The rest of the forecast was doing well and needed little change at this time. 320 PM Update... A pre-frontal trough has kicked off scattered showers and storms just west of the region. Some pop-up convection has been brief in the region. Instability and shear will likely increase as the cap continues to erode throughout the afternoon. This would leave the door open for isolated to scattered severe storms with wind being the main threat. The uncertainty lies with the shear, which is only modeled at 20 to 25 kts. This may be just enough to for severe storms but they should be relatively short-lived. With CAMs not handling this situation well, PoPs were made to be a ahead of the timing shown in guidance. Despite having uncertainty with this messy situation, a watch was issued based on earlier activity seen further west and the potential for additional severe storms based on higher surface-based instability. By the late evening hours, the potential for severe storms will diminish. The delayed cold front will move into the region from the northwest tonight. This boundary will kick off additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. With the added moisture, light winds, and fairly low dew point depressions, patchy valley fog may develop. In other areas, low stratus may also be possible. Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s tonight. With the front stretched across the southern portions of the region by Thursday morning, a weak disturbance will ride this front. This will help keep showers going across portions of NEPA and the Catskills through most of the morning hours. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as instability and shear will also be present. High pressure builds in behind this frontal boundary, leading to a quiet, partly cloudy afternoon across the region. The cold front brings relief from the heat we have seen the last couple of days highs will only be in mid 70s to low 80s. Dry conditions will continue overnight with temps falling into the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 335 AM Update... High pressure in control at the surface and weak ridging aloft will lead to dry conditions Friday night into early Saturday morning. Skies will be mostly clear and with cooler, drier air filtering in, did blend in a little of the NBM 10th percentile into the forecast. Lows will mainly be in the upper 40s and low 50s. After the dry start to the day Saturday, clouds will increase as an upper level shortwave and weak frontal boundary approach the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop later in the day ahead of the front and continue into Saturday night as the front gradually moves through. Highs Saturday will range from the upper 70s to the low 80s. Some valley locations may reach the mid 80s, especially with the trend being slower with the arrival of precipitation. Lows Saturday night will be milder in the 50s to near 60 degrees. Sunday is expected to be largely dry with just a slight chance (<25%) of a shower or thunderstorm with the heating of the day with the front still close by. The best chance for this would be over NE PA and the southern Catskills. High temperatures will be similar to Saturday in the upper 70s and low 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 335 AM Update... A warm front associated with our next storm system is expected to lift north toward the area Sunday night and the main area of low pressure lifts northeast into the Great Lakes on Monday, Memorial Day. As a result, showers and thunderstorms look likely for the holiday. As the low continues northeastward into SE Canada, a broad upper trough remains over the region with a couple of embedded shortwaves rotating through. This will keep the area unsettled with a chance of additional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, especially during peak heating hours. Highs Memorial Day are expected to be in the low to mid 70s, then it will cool down into the 60s by Wednesday. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday night will be in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cold front will push through the region this morning with a chance for more showers and thunderstorms, mostly in NE PA and possibly into the Southern Tier and this will be accompanied by a period of MVFR ceilings at AVP. Showers and thunderstorms will push east of the area by mid morning, with VFR conditions prevailing through the day. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR. Saturday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly western areas Sat afternoon, then spreading east overnight. Sunday...Mainly VFR expected. Monday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL/MWG NEAR TERM...BTL SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK AVIATION...BTL/MPK/MPH