437
FXUS63 KBIS 041446
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
946 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers will continue across central and eastern North
  Dakota this morning, and could return to the northwest in the
  afternoon.

- Strong northwest winds Tuesday through Thursday. Gusts up to
  50 mph are possible Wedneday.

- Seasonable temperatures expected through the week with
  slightly warmer temperatures possible late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Showers continue to propagate eastward along a line from Wells to
Emmons and Sioux Counties. No lightning has been observed for the
past several hours, and SPC mesoanalysis shows MUCAPE limited to the
southern James River Valley. We have removed the mention of thunder
form the forecast for the rest of the morning and kept only a slight
chance in southern James River Valley for the early afternoon as the
showers depart our forecast area.

Surface low pressure currently north of Saskatoon is forecast to
drive a strong pressure gradient into northwest North Dakota later
today, with recent guidance showing mean BL winds increasing to
around 40 kts. The Williston Airport is already reporting sustained
winds up to 34 mph. If these observed and modeled trends continue, a
Wind Advisory may be needed for the northwest this afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Showers continue in most of the CWA. The cold front is nearing
the Missouri River, turning winds to the west. There are
showers overrunning the front back to the Dickinson area. Winds
will start to increase west to east as a surface ridge and high
pressure squeeze winds between that and the low pressure in the
eastern Dakotas. The showers will push east and out by this
afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Currently the upper level low and shortwave is located over
northeast Montana into North Dakota. At the surface a cold front
is moving east through North Dakota with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of it. A surface low is located in north
central South Dakota. The thunderstorms are east of the low in
the warm sector (James River Valley), while the light showers
are along the cold front to the west. These will continue moving
east this morning. With the upper low spinning in Canada and
the cold front, temperatures will be much cooler in the upper
60s and lower 70s today. There is a chance of rain in the north
central with a small wave from the upper low this afternoon.
Wednesday air at the surface will be squeezed between a high in
Montana and a low north of Minnesota. With this northwest
surface flow, cooler air and a pressure rise bubble move
through. Winds could gust as high as 50mph in the southwest. We
opted not to issue a High Wind Watch yet because of lower
confidence right now. However we will for sure need a headline,
whether its a high wind warning for a few hours in the
afternoon or a wind advisory all day. Flow aloft Wednesday goes
zonal while a large ridge moves overhead through the weekend.
This will give us a break from all these shower and
thunderstorms. Highs will stay around average (mid 70s) through
this time. Monday a small disturbance could move through
bringing with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms through
Tuesday morning. Then another ridge could move in next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR with scattered showers between KDIK and KJMS and up to KMOT.
These will push east by this afternoon. A cold front is moving
through turning winds to the west and gusting up to 35kts
today. Clouds should clear out today, except in the north where
scattered 6000ft, maybe becoming a ceiling are possible this
afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith