753
FXUS62 KCHS 281101
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
701 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will linger near the area today. Atlantic high
pressure will return over the weekend, while a trough of low
pressure resides inland. A cold front is expected to impact the
area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early morning update: Enhanced low level jet is evident on
regional VAD wind profilers nosing into southern
Georgia...driving a few pockets of showers over south-central
Georgia as well as the Georgia coastal waters. LLJ will weaken
over the next hour or two and showers should fall apart. But the
eastern tail of showers might just scrape Jenkins County until
then. Meanwhile, stubborn showers linger over the Charleston
coastal waters as well as a small portion of the upper
Charleston County area. Those should also end in the next few
hours. Forecast has been updated to include small precip chances
this morning for the above named areas.

Overnight composite analysis reveals weak upper level troughing
and a stalled boundary across the southeast states into the
northern Gulf, tucked up larger scale low amplitude ridging
stretched through the Deep South. Discrete mid level short-wave
is noted along the Alabama/Florida Gulf Coast helping to
generate some convection along the Florida Panhandle/southern
Georgia region. Across the local area, it`s mainly cloudy and a
bit soupy but quiet for the most part. There has been a bit of
light precip regeneration across the tri-county area and into
the coastal waters in the last few hours in the vicinity of the
boundary and what may be a weak surface low off the coast.

Today: Weak upper level troughing essentially remains across the
region through the day. With heating, we should muster 500-1500
J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon with the higher values along the coastal
corridor; reduced a bit compared to the last few days owing to
ongoing modest mid level warming. Meanwhile, a bit stronger
warm/moist advection push will develop from the Gulf coast up
into the southeast region later this morning and into the
afternoon along the eastern periphery of the mid level wave. In
tandem with the diurnal marine layer push and modest instability
we should see another round of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, although the better coverage is anticipated across
southeast Georgia where warm advection forcing will be greatest.
Morning forecast will carry scattered-numerous pops this
afternoon, again with the higher values across southeast
Georgia. Severe weather threat is low.

Heat concerns: With abundant cloud cover and eventual precip,
afternoon high temperatures will run a little "cooler" with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s (88-94). This gives heat
index values largely under 105F. No heat related headline
planned for today.

Tonight: Diurnal convection will run its course through the
evening hours with quiet weather overnight. Some patchy fog will
again be possible. Lows dip into the lower to middle
70s...warmer along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will persist offshore Saturday and Sunday, while a
trough of low pressure resides inland. A cold front will approach
later Sunday, but it should stay well to the west through the
daytime. Ridging generally prevails aloft although the forecast area
will become positioned more on the eastern periphery as larger scale
trough amplifies to the north. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected to fire off each day, generated by
daytime heating and the sea breeze and then also from any activity
that develops upstream and moves in from the west. Organized severe
weather is not expected, but a few stronger storms with gusty winds
are possible as well as locally heavy rainfall.

Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue. Elevated dew
points will combine with highs in the low to mid 90s to produce heat
indices approaching or exceeding local Heat Advisory criteria of
108F in spots. At this point, Sunday appears to have a better
potential and coverage for headline issuance. It is worth noting
that afternoon convection could disrupt temperature trends. Not much
relief overnight with lows largely staying in the mid to upper 70s.

A cold front is expected to shift into the area on Monday. It looks
to be a fairly active day with the boundary providing an added focus
for convective development. Temperatures will be cooler than
previous days but still peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
warmest near the Altamaha.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will likely be lingering nearby into Tuesday before
eventually washing out. The surface pattern will then largely
feature high pressure offshore and troughing well inland for mid to
late week. Aloft, ridging will build over the Southeast. This should
act to limit convection, but isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will still be possible mainly during peak heating.
Will need to monitor the potential for heat concerns again late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Some low stratus and/or light fog will impact
the terminals through the early morning hours leading to
potential brief flight restrictions.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
again this afternoon with the greatest coverage possible across
southeast Georgia...impacting the KSAV terminal. Additional
flight restrictions are possible.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. Brief flight
restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon and evenings.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest flow will remain dominant across the coastal
waters through tonight. Seas will run 3 feet or less.

Saturday through Wednesday: Southerly flow will persist through
early next week as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic.
Speeds remain 15 knots or less with seas 2 to 4, so no marine
headlines are expected. A cold front will drop into the waters
Monday night into Tuesday, with winds backing more to the
northeast/east.

Rip Currents: A lingering 2 ft, 9 second swell coupled with some
astronomical influences and typical sea breeze enhancements along
the beaches support a moderate risk for rip currents for all beaches
today and Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The South Carolina forestry commission reported low fuel moistures
across portions of the area on Thursday. However, rainfall on
Thursday and the potential for rainfall over the next few days
will help to alleviate some of the low fuel moisture values.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Adam
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...Adam/ETM
MARINE...Adam/ETM