Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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202 FXUS63 KFGF 260554 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms over the Devils Lake basin Thursday evening. Another low chance for severe weather to end the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Some isolated to scattered showers are still working its way through the fore cast area. The showers near Roseau in NW Minnesota are the only ones with reports of rain actually making it to the ground. The showers North of I-94 may only being producing virga as no reports are coming in under the strongest reflectivity values. UPDATE Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Storms appear to be struggling given their less than ideal environment and as such the low end svr hail threat appears over. Remnant showers and isolated thunder will continue to shift southeast towards Bemidji by 2AM. Elsewhere elevated showers have begun to move into the souther Devils Lake Basin with increasing coverage expected through the next few hours in eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Generally light amounts if any with a wedge of dry air near the surface resulting in mostly virga per area mesonets. UPDATE Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Continuing to see the chance for some isolated convection in the northern Valley with rain moving southeast from Manitoba. SSCRAM is currently showing a 5% risk for >1 inch hail should a supercell form in this elevated CAPE environment with eff shear of 40+ knots. Main threat time 7pm to 10pm. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...Synopsis... Currently clouds are closing in on Eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota from the north and south. Synoptically speaking, the main pattern is quasi-zonal, but numerous troughs and ridges will be traversing the area in the forecast period. That being said, there are multiple chances for precipitation the next 7 days. Temperatures will have the chance to slightly recover over the next week, but will likely stay in the upper 70s. ...Tonight... Tonight, an area of precipitation is expected to move south from Canada into North Dakota. There could be some stray thunderstorms with these showers, but not expecting anything strong or severe. HREF guidance shows strong probability for elevated showers in our area this evening into Wednesday morning. ...Thursday/Friday Rain Chances... To end the week, a more organized trough will move into the northern plains starting Thursday. The main severe threat is in central and western North Dakota, but the Devils Lake Basin is under a marginal risk for severe weather on Thursday (level 1 out of 5). The warm sector is in central and western North Dakota during the afternoon Thursday, but this area will slide east into eastern North Dakota according to guidance. Hazards right now look to be quarter sized hail and 60 MPH wind gusts in the Devils Lake Basin on Thursday. However, as the forcing associated with the trough moves south and east, we could see a secondary threat of severe weather on Friday. This will be pretty conditional on if we can get some daytime heating or if the clouds win over. Regardless, this system has the potential to be a decent rainmaker for the area. WSUP probabilities for >0.5 inches of QPF in 24 hours (ending Friday night) are 60 - 80% for areas along and north of HWY-2, and 40 - 60% south of HWY-2. Once you increase probabilities to >1", the chances lower to 40 - 60% in the northern Devils Lake Basin to the international border. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Weak showers moving through the northern valley which could become a TVF and BJI problem later on especially if embedded lightning persists. otherwise winds have calmed in the 320-350 range. Ceilings expected to drop to MVFR as elevated showers (mostly virga) track east overnight with cigs as low as IFR though only in more brief saturated pockets aloft. Sct afternoon cumulus expected Wednesday climbing from 2kft to 5kft as mixing deepens through the day. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MM DISCUSSION...AH AVIATION...TT