Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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659 FXUS65 KFGZ 231031 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 331 AM MST Thu May 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A dry and breezy weather pattern will remain in place across northern Arizona through Saturday, with the strongest winds and potential for critical fire weather conditions on Friday. By Sunday and into next week, high pressure will bring lighter winds and a noticeable warming trend. && .DISCUSSION...A broad trough of low pressure remains over the western United States, with the bulk of the trough residing to our north. This pattern will remain in place through Saturday, with a few s/wvs increasing our daytime winds, especially on Friday. The entire pattern becomes more progressive by Sunday and into next week, with rebounding hghts and decreased winds as the gradients weaken. Southwest winds on Friday will likely just reach, or even exceed Wind Advisory Criteria over parts of the LCR. However, widespread Wind Advisory conditions are not expected. In addition, very low afternoon relative humidity values will make for near Critical Fire Weather conditions, although fuels remain suspect. For now, we will hold off any headlines for Friday, but we are right around the 50 percent decision threshold for now. Thursday and Saturday feature similar conditions, but wind speeds will not be as strong. Higher hghts for next week will bring a warming trend, reaching above normal by next Tuesday or Wednesday. There is no precipitation in sight. && .AVIATION...Thursday 23/12Z through Friday 24/12Z...MVFR conditions possible in HZ/FU in vicinity of KCMR/KFLG as well as BLDU near KINW. VFR conditions otherwise expected. Winds SW 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts before 03Z, then subsiding to 10 kts or less. OUTLOOK...Friday 24/12Z through Sunday 26/12Z...MVFR conditions possible in HZ/FU in vicinity of KCMR/KFLG as well as BLDU near KINW. VFR conditions otherwise expected. Winds SW 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts on Friday, subsiding to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Mild temperatures and dry conditions. Southwest winds 15-25 mph, increasing to 20-30 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Friday. Afternoon minimum RH values 10-20%. Near- critical fire weather conditions are possible across northeastern Arizona on Friday. Saturday through Monday...Warming temperatures and continued dry conditions. West/southwest winds 15-25 mph on Saturday, subsiding to around 5-15 mph for Sunday and Monday. Afternoon minimum RH values 15-25% on Sunday, then falling to 10-20% for Sunday and Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff