Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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830 FXUS65 KFGZ 212302 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 402 PM MST Tue May 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Fair skies, seasonable temperatures, and periods of gusty southwest winds will continue through the week. && .DISCUSSION...As the trough that recently affected Arizona now heads into the Midwest, dry westerly flow remains in its wake. Mild temperatures, sunny skies, and relatively light winds are the implications for our area. Although the weather is quiet, several prescribed fires in the Flagstaff area either occurring now or planned for this week will create areas of smoke and haze. Those sensitive to poor air quality should exercise caution and avoid time outdoors in affected locations. Smoke settles near the surface after dark, so keep those windows shut to prevent the pervasive smell of smoke from entering your home. A kink in the upper level flow will bring an increase in southwest winds Thursday through Saturday. Gusts at the surface past 30 mph are forecast along and north of the Mogollon Rim each day through this period. Along with the continued dry air, critical fire weather conditions are possible in some areas. Global model guidance points to stronger ridging to develop over the Southwest next week. As a result, warmer temperatures are increasingly likely in Arizona. Just a reminder, we are headed into what is normally the hottest and driest time of year. With the lack of cloud cover and high sun angle, extreme UV index levels are a regular occurrence. Stay safe! && .AVIATION...Wednesday 22/00Z through Thursday 23/00Z...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, but isolated periods of MVFR visibilities possible from HZ/FU. Look for W-SW winds around 10 kts, gusting up to 25 kts through 03Z. Light and variable winds should return overnight. Gusty SW winds expected to return by 18Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 23/00Z through Saturday 25/00Z...Gusty southwest winds are anticipated each afternoon, with light and variable winds overnight. VFR conditions should prevail through the outlook period, but areas of FU/HZ will be likely from prescribed burns. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Thursday...Dry conditions with mild temperatures. West/southwest winds 10-20 mph, becoming southwest on Wednesday. Winds will increase on Thursday with a few spots approaching critical fire weather conditions. Afternoon minimum RH values 8-18%. Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling temperatures through Saturday. Gusty southwest winds with gusts 30- 40 mph during the afternoon on Friday and Saturday, with lighter winds returning by Sunday. Minimum RH values 10-20 percent expected each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Benji AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff