Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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031 FXUS65 KFGZ 231003 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 305 AM MST Thu May 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A dry and breezy weather pattern will remain in place across northern Arizona through Saturday, with the strongest winds and potential for critical fire weather conditions on Friday. By Sunday and into next week, high pressure will bring lighter winds and a noticeable warming trend. && .DISCUSSION...A broad trough of low pressure remains over the western United States, with the bulk of the trough residing to our north. This pattern will remain in place through Saturday, with a few s/wvs increasing our daytime winds, especially on Friday. The entire pattern becomes more progressive by Sunday and into next week, with rebounding hghts and decreased winds as the gradients weaken. Southwest winds on Friday will likely just reach, or even exceed Wind Advisory Criteria over parts of the LCR. However, widespread Wind Advisory conditions are not expected. In addition, very low afternoon relative humidity values will make for near Critical Fire Weather conditions, although fuels remain suspect. For now, we will hold off any headlines for Friday, but we are right around the 50 percent decision threshold for now. Thursday and Saturday feature similar conditions, but wind speeds will not be as strong. Higher hghts for next week will bring a warming trend, reaching above normal by next Tuesday or Wednesday. There is no precipitation in sight. && .AVIATION...Thursday 23/06Z through Friday 24/06Z...Winds continue to decrease this evening generally around 10 mph. A few localized areas are still seeing breezes near 20 mph, but that will subside overnight. VFR conditions will mostly prevail except for reduced visibilities near prescribed burns. Gusty SW winds look to return after 16Z, with gusts near 25-30 kts. Calmer winds forecast tomorrow night. OUTLOOK...Friday 24/06Z through Sunday 26/06Z...Mostly VFR conditions expected throughout the outlook period, with reduced visibilities near prescribed burns. Gusty SW winds expected each afternoon, with lighter winds overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Mild temperatures and dry conditions. Southwest winds 15-25 mph, increasing to 20-30 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Friday. Afternoon minimum RH values 10-20%. Near- critical fire weather conditions are possible across northeastern Arizona on Friday. Saturday through Monday...Warming temperatures and continued dry conditions. West/southwest winds 15-25 mph on Saturday, subsiding to around 5-15 mph for Sunday and Monday. Afternoon minimum RH values 15-25% on Sunday, then falling to 10-20% for Sunday and Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff