046
FXUS65 KFGZ 221737
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1037 AM MST Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Fair skies, seasonable temperatures, and periods of
gusty southwest winds will continue through the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Satellite imagery shows clear skies across northern
Arizona this morning. Quiet weather remains on tap for today, with
high temperatures ranging from the low-70s to upper-80s across the
majority of northern Arizona`s High Country.

No forecast updates are anticipated this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /427 AM MST/...Today...Zonal flow remains in
place over Arizona today, keeping temperatures about the same as
yesterday, maybe just a degree or two warmer. Dry and breezy
conditions also remain, with afternoon breezes around 20-30 mph.

Thursday through Saturday...A passing shortwave to the north on
Thursday will lead to an uptick of southwesterly winds during the
afternoon. Another trough looks to pass a bit closer to Arizona on
Friday and Saturday, with peak gusts looking to be in the 35-45 mph
range along and downwind of the terrain. While the winds will be
strong enough to support critical fire weather, moisture looks to
increase just enough to make RH less supportive and more marginal.
Thus, conditions look to mainly be near-critical and largely only
across the lower elevations.

Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure makes a return for the second-
half of the weekend, brining with it a return of lighter winds and
continued dry conditions. Warm temperatures ensue as well, with
afternoon highs by the start of next week likely near normal to even
above normal by a few degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 22/18Z through Thursday 23/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions except for local reduced visibility from smoke due to
prescribed burns. Southwest winds 10-20 kts gusting near 25 kts
until around 02Z then becoming light. Southwest winds will develop
again after 16Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 23/18Z through Saturday 25/18Z...VFR
conditions will persist but with periods of local reduced
visibility in smoke due to prescribed burns. Expect southwest
winds 15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts each afternoon with lighter
winds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Look for dry conditions with
mild temperatures. Expect southwest winds 5-15 mph gusting near 25
mph today, becoming 10-20 mph gusting near 35 mph on Thursday.
Minimum RH values between 8-18% each afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling
temperatures through Saturday. Southwest winds with gusts 30-40 mph
during the afternoon on Friday and Saturday, with lighter winds
returning by Sunday. Minimum RH values 10-20% expected each
afternoon. Near-critical fire weather conditions possible across the
Little Colorado River Valley on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/Humphreys
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff