278
FXUS64 KFWD 261737
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1237 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

A thunderstorm complex is currently shifting south-southeast
across northeast Texas. It remains sub-severe in our area with
occasional wind gusts up to 40 mph likely in Delta and Hopkins
Counties over the next hour or so. Several convective attempts
have occurred along an outflow boundary extending west along the
Red River, but displacement from the main cold pool and some
modest MLCIN has kept these showers from seeing robust vertical
development. Slightly better chances (20-30%) for isolated to
widely scattered showers across North Texas look to arrive later
this evening as a cold front currently located near the KS/OK
border pushes south toward the Red River Valley. Most locations
will remain dry, but those that do become placed beneath a shower
or storm could see brief heavy rainfall and gusty downburst winds.
Isolated garden-variety thunderstorms will be possible again
Thursday primarily across the southwestern half of the CWA as the
aforementioned weak front pushes into North Texas.

Beyond the low rain chances, oppressive late June heat and
humidity will persist through the short-term forecast period.
Expect afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s with heat
index values peaking in the 105-110 degree range. It is possible
that several North Texas locations may approach Excessive Heat
Warning criteria by Thursday afternoon, but we will let the
evening/overnight crew look at this afternoon`s observations
before making that decision. For now, the current Heat Advisory
will be extended through Thursday evening. Nonetheless, it is hot
and you should continue to take the necessary precautions to
protect yourself, your family, and your pets from the heat!

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 315 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/
/Thursday Night Through Tuesday/

The upper ridge, which has been centered west of the Lone Star
State the past few days, will briefly deamplify while shifting to
the east Thursday night through Saturday. Increasing subsidence
will keep the weather rain free and continued hot with highs
ranging from the middle 90s to around 103. Dew points will also
stay in the 70s overall, except for some brief afternoon mixing
into the upper 60s across the west. Therefore, afternoon heat
index values will still average between 105 and 110 for most
locations.

The brief deamplification of the ridge will be a result of a
strong shortwave sweeping across the Northern and Central
Plains. The passage of the shortwave will also send a cold front
southward through the Central Plains Saturday. The front is
progged to stall over Oklahoma on Sunday, but it will be a source
of lift for thunderstorms. A few storms could briefly reach the
northeast zones as they propagate southeastward on the periphery
of the upper ridge, mainly Sunday afternoon.

High pressure will become centered near the ArkLaTex early next
week, keeping the hot and humid weather in place as we start the
month of July. Temperatures and heat index values will be very
similar to this week. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will likely
remain for part, if not all of the region early next week.

One thing that could become an issue as we move deeper into
summer will be the threat for fire starts as fine fuels begin to
dry under the extreme heat. The good news is that this time of the
year, wind speeds are typically light, keeping the threat for
significant fire spread low. Recent high humidity has also helped
to keep the overall threat for fire starts and spread low but
humidity can change quickly with even subtle airmass modification
and wind shifts. Again, there is no immediate fire threat expected
with this forecast package, but the threat may start to creep up
across parts of North and Central Texas as we move through July.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will likely prevail through much of the TAF period.
A complex of thunderstorms currently impacting the Bonham (BYP)
cornerpost will continue to shift south-southeast this afternoon
remaining well displaced from any TAF sites. An outflow boundary
extending along the Red River Valley continues to spark some very
isolated shower development north of the Metroplex. Very little
lightning has been observed in this activity. Slightly better
chances (~20-30%) for convection within D10 looks to arrive later
this evening after 02Z as a weak cold front approaches the Red
River Valley. These storms could bring brief gusty, variable
outflow winds to the D10 terminals.

Otherwise expect, south-southwesterly flow at 8-15 kts with
occasional 3-5kft cigs through the afternoon and evening. Winds
will likely shift more east-southeasterly early Thursday morning
behind a weak cold front.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   101  82 100  82 100 /  10  20   5   0   0
Waco                98  79  98  79  98 /   5  10  10   0   0
Paris               95  76  94  77  97 /  40  30   5   0   0
Denton             101  79 100  79 100 /  10  20   5   0   0
McKinney           100  79  98  79  99 /   5  20   5   0   0
Dallas             101  81 100  82 100 /  10  20   5   0   0
Terrell             97  78  97  79  97 /  10  20   5   0   0
Corsicana           98  80  97  79  98 /   5  10   0   0   0
Temple              98  78  99  77  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      102  79 101  78 100 /   5   5  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$