526
FXUS64 KFWD 152341
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
641 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday/

No appreciable changes from the short-term forecast issued earlier
today. Through Sunday, the forecast area will remain in a broad
col region between two upper level high pressure centers over
Northern Mexico and the Southeast U.S. An absence of deep moisture
and instability will preclude any significant cloud cover or
convective development, apart from a few early morning stratus in
the southern zones, and a blossoming of afternoon fair weather
cumulus elsewhere. With limited subsidence in play, our afternoon
highs Sunday should remain near seasonal norms - lower 90s
areawide.


Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 232 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

After several days of quiet weather, an unsettled pattern is
expected throughout this upcoming week. A shortwave disturbance is
currently moving across the Southern Plains today and has shunted
the upper ridge into Dixie Alley. To our northwest, an upper level
longwave trough is moving onshore the Pacific Northwest. With the
ridge to our east and trough to our west, moisture advection will be
on the increase early this week in response to the south/southeast
low-level flow atop the region. Guidance continues to highlight a
weakness in the ridge, spanning from the Gulf of Mexico to the
Southern Plains over the first half of this upcoming week. This
weakness, coupled with the ample moisture and inherent instability,
will allow for isolated showers and storms across our east/southeast
zones both Monday and Tuesday. Lightning and heavy rain will be the
main hazards.

Over mid-late week, coverage of rain chances will be on the increase
as a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche moves over Mexico
and South Texas. While rain chances will be higher to our south,
isolated-scattered chances for showers and storms are expected
during this time as the northern extent of the inverted shortwave
trough will move across the region. Severe weather is not expected,
however heavy rain and lightning will interrupt outdoor plans.
Currently, forecast sounding storm motions of 30-40 kts will promote
progressive movement and preclude a higher-end flood threat. Current
most-likely 72 hour rainfall accumulations (Wed AM - Sat AM) show up
to 1-1.5" across Central Texas with lower amounts further north.

Thanks to those rain chances and cloudy skies, afternoon
temperatures will peak in the 80s both Wednesday and Thursday. These
temperatures are up to around 10 degrees below normal for this
time of year.

One particular point of interest will be Wednesday. Over the last
three runs, the GFS has been consistent in the formation of a
surface low in the Gulf that will move onshore and track westward
across southern Central Texas during the day. If this solution were
to occur, rainfall totals would increase across Central Texas and
the ramp up the flooding threat. 15% of total ensemble guidance
members are showing the northern inverted trough, with the majority
of those solutions made up of GEFS and GEPS ensemble members. In
short: while there is still uncertainty in what exactly will happen
on Wednesday, we`ll need to keep a close eye in the coming days as
mid- and short-range models begin to cover it.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will persist at all TAF sites through 00z Monday.
Some patchy stratus may advect northward into the KACT area around
12z Sunday on the heels of good southerly low level flow, but am
not confident at this point that coverage will be significant
enough to include MVFR conditions at this site. Scattered fair
weather cumulus clouds will develop at all TAF sites from 16z
onward. A decent pressure gradient between a trough in eastern New
Mexico and a high centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will
yield southerly winds sustained at 10-14 knots Sunday, with a few
gusts to near 20 knots possible from midday onward.

Bradshaw

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  93  76  92  76 /   0   0   0   5   0
Waco                73  92  74  91  75 /   0   0   0  10   0
Paris               73  92  74  90  72 /   0   0   0  20   5
Denton              73  93  74  93  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            73  92  74  91  74 /   0   0   0   5   0
Dallas              75  94  76  92  75 /   0   0   0   5   0
Terrell             72  92  74  90  74 /   0   0   0  10   0
Corsicana           73  94  76  92  75 /   0   0   0  10   0
Temple              73  92  74  92  74 /   0   0   0  10   0
Mineral Wells       74  92  74  93  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$