274
FXUS63 KGID 092329
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
629 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant conditions this afternoon continue on into this
  evening and tonight. Monday remains dry, with the chance
  (20-40 percent) for showers/storms to work their way in from
  the west Monday evening on into Tuesday. The overall best
  chances look to be west of Highway 281. These storms are not
  expected to be severe.

- Additional small chances (20-30 percent) for storms return
  during the evening/overnight hours on both Wednesday and
  Thursday, with more widespread better chances Friday evening
  on into the weekend (40-70 percent).

- Wednesday and Thursday currently looking to be the first days
  of the year with widespread temps/Heat Index values in the
  90s. Southern portions of the forecast area could have Heat
  Index near 100 degrees both days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Currently through tonight...

Been a very nice start to the weekend across the forecast area,
with little to no cloud cover. Looking aloft, upper air and
satellite data showing northwesterly flow in place across the
Plains, set up between ridging extending northward through the
Rockies and a large area of low pressure over the extreme
northeastern CONUS. Helping drive the comfortable conditions
this afternoon is an area of surface high pressure settled over
the Nrn/Central Plains, keeping winds around 10 MPH or less and
dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Mid-afternoon temps are
fairly close to normal for this time of year, sitting in the mid
70s to low 80s.

Quiet conditions continue on into this evening/overnight, and though
a few upper level clouds may stream in from the northwest, overall
clear skies are expected. Surface high pressure keeps winds
light/variable overnight, but with the lower dewpoints, not
expecting fog to be an issue. Overnight lows are forecast to
drop into the low-mid 50s.

Monday and Tuesday...

Expecting a dry day once again on Monday, lingering into at
least the early evening hours. Models showing weakening upper
level ridging getting pushed east with time by a shortwave
trough making its way through the Rockies and onto the High
Plains during the day. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon along an accompanying surface frontal
boundary, with models in good agreement showing it still being
west of the forecast area at 00Z (perhaps not by much though).
Models in general have pretty good agreement showing this
activity with a diminishing trend the further east it goes
during the evening/overnight hours...driven by the loss of
daytime heating/better lapse rates, and the fact the better
upper level lift and aid from an increasing low-level jet are
focused off to the north. Instability/shear are on the weaker
side, so severe weather is not currently expected. Models vary
some with the coverage of activity the further east you go...so
outside of the 30- 40 percent chances of storms along the NW
fringe of the forecast where where things move in earlier in the
evening, hard to go above 20 percent chances through central
portions...and have less than 20 percent across the southeastern
third or so of the area.

As we get into Tuesday...the main question continues to be with
how much activity lingers and how far east it gets. The better
upper level trough axis and lift remains north of the area into
central Canada...and the accompanying surface front, losing its
upper push, becomes more diffuse and is hard to pick out by
late afternoon. Can`t rule out some isolated/scattered showers
and storms near this frontal boundary during the day, but those
chances will also wane with time during the afternoon, expected
to end by early evening. Similar to Monday night, with overall
lift struggling and shear on the lower side, the threat for
severe weather is low.

Outside of precipitation chances, winds on Monday are expected to
switch to the south, as the area is set up between the departing
surface high to the east and approaching low pressure to our
west. Areas west of Highway 281 could be on the breezy side,
with speeds closer to 15-20 MPH, further east closer to 10-15
MPH. Confidence in winds on Tuesday are lower, due to
uncertainties with that weakening surface front sinking into the
area. No notable changes in forecast highs...with generally
mid-80s expected both days.

Wednesday and on...

As far as preciptiation chances go, the forecast still dry for
Tuesday night on into the day on Wednesday, with some low storm
chances (20 percent) returning Wed. evening/night. Not a lot of
confidence in those chances, even though they only clip far
northeastern portions of the forecast area. Models keeping the
upper level pattern west-northwesterly, with an embedded
shortwave disturbance currently looking to mainly pass just to
our north. So again the better lift is looking to focus north,
and models also show warmer temps in the mid-levels (capping)
starting to work their way back north.

Have a dry daytime on Thursday, with another shortwave
disturbance bringing storm chances Thursday evening/night.
Similar to the previous ones, models in general keep the brunt
of the lift with these disturbances passing just off to our
north...and though the accompanying surface front is a little
stronger of a focus, models still have those warmer mid-level
temps/capping potentially limiting the coverage of any activity
in our area. There are some details to iron out in models
there...just looking at deterministic models, the ECMWF is
pretty dry in this period, the GFS is more aggressive with
developing activity along that surface front. Hard to argue with
the NBM/forecast keeping precipitation chances low (20 percent)
at this point. Should storms develop, model suggesting a better
environment as far as instability/shear go, so the potential
strong-severe storms may become more of a concern as we get
closer.

A stronger upper level disturbance, this time working in from
the west-southwest instead of the northwest, will bring
increased precipitation chances to the area late in the forecast
period. At this time, the overall best chances (50-70 percent)
are focused on Friday evening/night...with 30-50 percent chances
lingering into Saturday/Sat night. Overall confidence isn`t
high with lingering differences between models with how things
evolve.

Looking at temperatures for this mid-late week time frame,
overall no significant changes were made. At this time,
Wednesday and Thursday are the overall hottest days of the
period, with plenty of 90s to go around. Heat index values on
Wednesday climb into the mid- upper 90s for much of the forecast
area, with upper 90s-near 100 possible on Thursday mainly
across portions of north central KS...both the hottest values of
the year so far. Friday-Sunday forecast to have mid 80s north
to low-mid 90s south, but any changes in any of those upper
level disturbances/precipitation chances will play a role in
those.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with only a
few-sct passing high level clouds. Winds overnight will be
light and variable, at less than 5 KTS, as surface high pressure
transitions across eastern Nebraska maintaining a light
pressure gradient across the local area. Expect modest
southeasterly winds on the backside of this high pressure system
to develop during the afternoon hours Monday, with sustained
southeasterly winds of 10-15 KTS through around 10/24Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Rossi