583
FXUS63 KGID 091113
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
613 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather through Monday with highs in the upper 70s to mid
  80s.

- A few low end chances for showers/thunderstorms during the
  work week with better chances Friday evening through Saturday
  evening.

- Warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected
  Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 90s both days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Today and Monday...
The central Plains will be under northwest flow aloft ahead of
an approaching high pressure ridge. A few clouds associated with
the weather system to our southeast may linger this morning but
mostly clear skies are expected this afternoon through Monday
morning. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s and
low 80s, and on Monday as the upper ridge moves overhead highs
will be warmer, in the low to mid 80s across the area.

Monday night and Tuesday...
A cold front will move across the region. This does not look
particularly strong, and there will be low end shower and
thunderstorm chances (20-30%) starting overnight Monday night
and moving southeast across the forecast area Tuesday. High
temperatures Tuesday will be in the 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...
Generally zonal flow aloft will be over southern Nebraska and
northern Kansas, but very warm temperatures are expected as
broad high pressure over the desert Southwest expands to impact
the region. These will be the warmest days so far with high
temperatures in the 90s expected both days. Areas across north
central Kansas are expected to approach 100 degrees Thursday
afternoon.

Thursday evening through Saturday evening...
Models start to diverge at this point, but the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms (30-40%) looks to be Thursday evening
into Friday as a front moves south through the central and
southern Plains. Highs Friday will be a little cooler, in the
mid to upper 80s. For Friday afternoon through Saturday evening,
model guidance is in better agreement regarding more showers and
thunderstorms. An upper trough that will have been sitting off
of the California coast since Monday will finally start to move
northeast Friday over the northern edge of the previously
mentioned broad high pressure. A shortwave disturbance ahead of
the front will bring precipitation chances as early as Friday
evening, and the cold front looks to move across the forecast
area over next weekend. Even though this is day 5 through 7,
with this much model consensus this far out, we feel comfortable
with the 40-65% chances for precipitation inherited from the NBM
model guidance going into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Lingering
mid-level and cirrus cloud cover is expected to clear away from
the area of both TAF sites by 15Z this morning. Skies will be
clear for the remainder of the TAF period. Light and variable
winds will become generally easterly at 5 to 9 kts this morning,
persisting until late this evening when winds become light and
variable again.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford