963
FXUS61 KILN 240459
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1259 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief respite in the heat and humidity is expected on Monday,
before warmer and more humid air quickly builds back into the
region on Tuesday, along with chances for storms Tuesday night
through Wednesday. Drier and cooler conditions will then return
for the last part of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold front has moved into southeast Ohio at 02Z. Northwest winds
behind the front have brought lower dewpoint air into much of
the CWA. Post-frontal drier air mass has brought an end to
showers, and will support clearing overnight. Lows will drop
into the lower to mid 60s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure over the area
Monday. With a dry airmass in place expect only a few fair
weather cumulus clouds. With abundant sunshine highs top out in
the lower and middle 80s.

The center of surface high pressure to build off to the east
Monday night with a return southerly low level flow developing
on its backside. Expect lows to range from near 60 in the east
to the mid 60s west - where flow picks up and clouds begin to
increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will be moving east on Tuesday, while a cold front
approaches from the west. Thunderstorms may be confined to
northwestern locations near a disturbance in the mid level flow.
Showers and thunderstorms become likely Tuesday night as the cold
front sags toward Ohio. Carrying pops as high as categorical
Wednesday when the front is forecast to cross Ohio and Kentucky.
Strong storms will be possible from an environment containing ample
wind shear and instability. PWAT over 2 inches will allow heavy
downpours. Dry weather is indicated for Thursday and Friday as high
pressure builds in behind the front. The next cold front brings back
the threat for showers and storms Saturday and Sunday.

High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast on
Tuesday ahead of the first cold front. Readings may be a few degrees
cooler on Wednesday due to clouds and precip. A round of cold
advection on Thursday will result in upper 70s to mid 80s. A return
to the 90s is likely by Saturday ahead of the second cold front. A
retreat to the mid and upper 80s is expected for Sunday under the
next cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tranquil conditions are expected through the TAF period as drier
air filters into the region. A stray SHRA may be possible near
KCMH/KLCK through the first several hours of the TAF period, but
most of this spotty activity should stay to the NE of these
sites.

A narrow axis of MVFR clouds will impact KCVG/KLUK, and perhaps
even KILN, through the first hour or so of the TAF period
before skies trend mostly clear for wrn sites after about 07z.

A FEW/SCT diurnally-driven VFR Cu will sprout about during the
afternoon, with the best coverage focused for central OH
(KCMH/KLCK). NNW winds at 5-10 kts will be maintained through
00z Tuesday before going light/VRB by 06z and eventually
southerly again by Tuesday daybreak.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...KC