Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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621 FXUS63 KIWX 230425 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1225 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Relief from the heat arrives later tonight through Monday, but briefly returns on Tuesday when afternoon heat indices may once again be near 100 degrees. * Showers and scattered storms expected to move in tonight with some potential for wind gusts in excess of 50 mph late evening into early overnight hours, best chances in nw IN and sw MI. * There are chances for thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday, though confidence regarding timing and intensity is low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 No changes in thinking from the previous forecast. Shortwave and associated deepening sfc low tracking east through the northern Great Lakes will drag a convective outflow and synoptic cold front southeast through the area tonight into Sunday. This will bring rain/storm chances and at least a brief reprieve from the heat. Dry, hot and somewhat breezy conditions will persist this afternoon into most of the evening given a capped/dry airmass with 700 mb temps near 10-11C. Attention late this evening into early Sunday turns to a line or cluster of deep convection organizing over eastern IA, southern WI and northern IL during the late aftn hours. Expectations are for this activity to undergo a general weakening trend with southeast progression as it outruns more favorable flow/forcing into much less downstream instability. With that said, if a more organized upstream convective segment is realized, the potential for isolated severe wind gusts would exist for areas mainly northwest of US 24 in the 03-07z window. Non-severe gusts in the 30-50 mph range appear more likely however with what should become an outflow dominant convective line. Opted to hold with likely to categorical PoPs otherwise along the pre-frontal feature early Sunday given ample pooled moisture. The main cold front then follows through Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon with additional non-zero chances for scattered showers/storms. A turned over airmass and weakened frontal convergence behind the early AM composite outflow limits chances/coverage however. Drier and cooler air (seasonable) does settle in Sunday afternoon, and more into Monday when sfc high pressure briefly builds in with pleasant wx. Return flow quickly ramps back up in response to the next round of Upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes height falls. This will allow a frontal system, first as a warm front and strong low-mid level theta-e advection late Monday night into Tuesday, followed by a cold frontal passage Tuesday night or Wednesday to potentially impact the local area. This type of evolution points to several MCS`s during this time which will no doubt modulate the positioning/timing of these frontal features and degree of heating/destabilization. Confidence in temps and shower/storm chances remain very low as a result at this forecast range. Higher confidence however in seasonable temps and dry conditions to follow for the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Line of convection will arrive at KSBN in roughly an hour with brief MVFR conditions and wind gusts around 30 kts likely. Still expect arrival in KFWA around 08-09Z with lower coverage of lightning. MVFR ceilings also still appear likely behind the line. Models suggest IFR possible but there is little support for that in upstream obs and will continue to hold with fuel- alternate MVFR for now. Return to VFR anticipated by the afternoon with clearing skies and winds relaxing by Sunday evening. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM EDT early this morning through this afternoon for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...AGD