Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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655 FXUS63 KIWX 011746 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 146 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers slowly arriving through today, lingering into the overnight hours. - Frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms next week. - Turning cooler late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 An upper-level low over Missouri early this morning will continue to slowly track east-northeast. Moisture transport from the Gulf is ample, per water vapor imagery, with a comma shape developing on satellite as the surface low eventually occludes. High pressure lingering over the Mid-Atlantic has slowed the time of arrival for rain today, but I do expect rain to reach northwest Ohio prior to sunset. The chance for thunder has been pretty mediocre leading up to this moment, and parameters remain poor. Therefore, have jumped off the porch and removed thunder for this event. Circling back to moisture transport for a moment, HREF PWATS have decreased slightly over the past 24 hours but remain unseasonably high near 1.5 inches (90th percentile for DTX sounding climatology is 1.31 inches; 1.48 inches at ILX). Boundary parallel flow along the cold/occluding front will present some risk of training but in the absence of convection, the overall flood risk low. Storm total rainfall is forecast to range from about 0.50 to 1 inch. Showers taper off soon after sunrise Sunday over northwest Ohio; dry elsewhere. The in-house blend remains overzealous for the chance of showers and storms Monday associated with a low moving through the far Northern Plains. Surface high pressure locally looks to keep this rain chance at bay until at least sunset over northwest Indiana. This will be a target of opportunity in the days ahead. For now, have done my best to reduce POPs with neighbors for the daytime Monday. The better chance for showers and storms is overnight. A ridge off the southwest US amplifies in the days that follow, sending active west and northwest flow through the Midwest. This is punctuated by a deep trough sweeping through Wednesday, with a widespread chance of showers and storms followed by cooler temperatures to finish the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Area of rain advancing slowly north and also somewhat west from eastern IL into central/southern IN. Returns across N IL are barely reaching the ground given dry low levels. Given this and the overall movement, have slowed down pops further with measurable precip likely not reaching far W/SW areas until closer to 18Z and then advancing slowly east from there as the upper low moves into the region. Adjusted pops to reflect these trends. May need to make some further adjustments for later today into tonight, but will address those with the afternoon package. Temperatures remain problematic as extensive mid/upper level cloud cover is advancing across the area, but thin nature is allowing for heating across the area and with the further delay in precip arrival may still be a touch too cool for highs. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Showers were spreading north ahead of a surface low over northeast MO. This system will bring the showers across the area including lower ceilings and VSBYs. Adjusted the timing of showers according to the latest expectations. IFR ceilings should be slow to lift at SBN. May be too optimistic at FWA with ceilings hovering near 010. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fisher DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...Skipper