Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
204 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

High pressure surface and aloft will build across the Great Lakes
through Tuesday with sunny and hot weather. Highs will range from 90
to 95.

Thereafter, showers and thunderstorms are likely as the remains of
tropical storm Alberto lift up into the southern Great Lakes


.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Remants of a small scale convective vort embedded in a low-mid
level trough axis will bring scattered showers/storms to ares
mainly east of I-69 through 19/20z. Meager lape rates and lacking
background flow should keep convective sub-severe, through high
pwat values could favor locally heavy rainfall and ponding. Cannot
rule out isolated showers/thunder farther west into ne IN/sc MI
along a differential heating boundary mainly in the 19-00z window
mid afternoon into the early evening before boundary layer cooling
commences. Dry/hot otherwise across nw IN/sw MI thanks to Lake MI
aggregate affects and subsidence in wake of the aforementioned
trough axis. This drying/subsidence and diurnal cooling will bring
an end to any pcpn chances tonight with patchy ground fog
possible early Sunday morning, best chances across ne IN/nw OH in
areas that receive rain this afternoon.

The rest of the holiday weekend will be characterized by impressive
early season heat as ridging both aloft and at the sfc folds east
into the Southwestern Great Lakes. 850 mb pushing 19C will allow highs
to reach the low 90s both Sunday and Monday, with dry/mostly
sunny conditions anticipated given strong capping and no forcing.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Another unseasonably warm and dry Tuesday will give way to
increasing rain/embedded thunder chances Wed-Wed night as Alberto
remnants lift north from the Deep South. This system and its
associated tropical moisture (precipitable water values near 2
inches) could provide a swath of heavier rainfall, though details
on track/timing remain uncertain at this fcst range given phasing
differences with incoming northern stream energy.
Cyclonic/perturbed flow on the backside of whatever comes of this
phase circulation could generate additional shower/storm activity
into Thursday-Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Weak disturbance aloft crossing the area has failed to generate much
more than a shower owing to poor diurnal destabilization across the
area. Even with clearing evident in satellite general poor boundary
layer moisture flux and what remains waning upper forcing likely to
yield little if anything across the terminals through mid aftn. Thus
will continue with no potential precip mention. Otherwise VFR
through the period.




SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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