837
FXUS63 KIWX 070956
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
556 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued very warm and humid through the rest of this week with
  highs in the 80s.

- Frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms after Tuesday.
  Severe storms are not expected.

- The best chances for storms are Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Storms from last night have nearly completely dissipated. The
storms had formed in the area of a weak upper level disturbance
in the vicinity of a somewhat diffuse cold front. The front has
been moving slowly south and will continue to drift south today.
Thunderstorms are possible ahead of south-moving front today -
basically east and south of Fort Wayne. Severe storms are not
expected but locally heavy rainfall is possible. Rainfall rates
last night up to 3"/hr were observed with the heaviest rainfall
reports around 2". These rainfall rates and amounts are
possible again today as an axis of very high precipitable water
around 2.0 resides ahead of the front and in the vicinity of the
front. The airmass behind the front was slightly cooler over
northwest Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan.

As far as the rest of the week, an upper level ridge will remain
anchored over the southwest CONUS. Energy in the form of
disturbances and short wave trofs coming zonally from the west
and also from the northwest will combine to keep an active
pattern over the Upper Great Lakes region. Thunderstorms will be
possible each day after Tuesday. The airmass will slowly modify
and allow high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s by
Friday. Corresponding maximum heat indices Friday should reach
the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Cold frontal boundary is currently hung up with a northeasterly
to southwesterly orientation over KFWA and has allowed for the
development of IFR/LIFR conditions in light drizzle and mist
for KFWA. With further slow progression of the front
southeastward the expectation is we will see a slow improvement
through 15z Mon becoming MVFR conditions in lowered cigs. KSBN
will also continue to see lowered cigs in IFR category through
15z Mon and into MVFR category with slight lifting of cigs. VFR
conditions will return to KSBN by 21z Mon into the remaining TAF
period while KFWA looks to become VFR around 22z Mon. However,
KFWA vsbys will begin to drop once again to MVFR in mist around
05z Tue and drop further into IFR and LIFR in mist and fog after
07z Tue. This may be too aggressive but definitely plausible
with the moist low levels. Will continue to monitor for this
scenario in subsequent shifts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Andersen