Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 132327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
727 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Issued at 721 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

A few more rounds of snow showers are possible during the
overnight hours tonight especially closer to the lake, in extreme
northern Indiana, extreme southern Michigan and northern portions
of northwest Ohio. Accumulations up to an inch are possible in
the heaviest snow showers. Dry conditions are expected tomorrow
through the weekend with seasonably cool temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Brief lake effect expected to develop this evening within trailing
upper vort axis. However general lack of organization likely given
marginal background thermal troughing and lower inversion heights
compared to this aftn. Otherwise this activity will taper by sunrise
Wed as subsidence aloft takes over along with increasing low level
dry entrainment.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Rest of the forecast period exceptionally quiet with next decent
chance of precip not until Mon/Tue of next week. A few more
shortwaves will dive into the eastern Lakes Wed-Fri but appear weak
enough and east enough to prevent measurable precip in our CWA. A
few flurries may be possible Thu morning but highly unlikely. Latest
deterministic models consistent in showing a dry/subsident
environment locally with elongated surface ridge building into the
region Thu-Sat. Will have to keep an eye on initial wave shearing
east on Sat. Models have been struggling with evolution of large
western CONUS negative height anomaly and downstream effects. This
wave could clip our area Sat...but held with dry conditions for now.
Temps do remain on the chilly side through the week with a
persistent northerly component to the flow and no good SW flow/WAA
for the foreseeable future.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Lake enhanced snow showers continue to rotate south out of
Michigan and may side swipe SBN. Will keep them prevailing VFR
with a tempo group of MVFR with quick drops and rises in and out
of MVFR possible and it`s possible it misses them entirely.
Secondly, Hires models show some more lake enhanced snow forming
after 7z and there may be some MVFR at times within that, but will
hedge towards prevailing VFR conditions without too much
confidence on placement and that MVFR conditions are associated
with it. That lake enhancement will push away early Wednesday as
drier air comes in and VFR conditions will come in for the rest of
Wednesday. FWA stays out of the bulk of snowfall so will keep them
in VFR.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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