968
FXUS62 KJAX 291703
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
103 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Area of high cloudiness and possible sprinkles across ne FL will
spread slowly southward while gradually diminishing later this
morning. Otherwise will see scattered showers/isolated t-storms
develop by midday, becoming numerous across ne FL during the
afternoon. No significant changes to forecast planned in update.
Current high temperature forecast Today looks fine. Afternoon
heat index values will be in the 100-105 range.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Anomalously high moisture continues over the area with PWAT values
remaining around 2 inches the past few days, and relatively warm
temps aloft with 500 mb temps at about -6C. Low level flow remains
light south and the 925 mb ridge is across the southern FL peninsula.
The ridge will lift a bit northward today and allow the Atlantic
sea breeze to push further inland. Thus, anticipate the bulk of
the higher rain chances today to shift a bit further west, and
still have rain chances around the 60-80 percent range, with the
best chances over inland northeast FL. The main area of more
concentrated storms may be around and just west of the Highway 301
corridor. Afternoon MLCAPE of about 1500-2000 J/kg appears
likely. The main threats with any of the storms will be gusty
downburst winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall/localized
flooding, given the higher PWATs and dewpoints. We can`t rule out
an isolated, brief severe storm today given the high instability,
but shear values, as is typical for summer, remains low. Highs
today will be in the lower 90s, with upper 80s near the coast, and
giving heat indices of about 105, below heat advy criteria.

Tonight, scattered convection expected mainly in the evening hours
and should diminish after midnight. There will likely remain a
threat of a couple of showers or even a t-storm after midnight as
a trough of low pressure across GA and low level convergence
supports precip chances. Lows tonight expected in the lower to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Pattern for deep-layer moisture will continue into the end of the
weekend with stronger diurnal convection expected to develop in
conjunction with the afternoon sea breeze, storm outflow
boundaries, and areas of collision. Predominant PWAT levels will
range between 2 and 2.5 inches through the period, resulting in
increased chances for storms with heavy localized rainfall. High
temperatures for this period will rise into the mid 90s for inland
areas and in the upper 80s and lower 90s for areas along the
shoreline with a potential for Heat Advisory conditions during the
day on Sunday with heat index values rising up to 110 degrees in
some areas. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid
70s for inland areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A cold front will press down from out of the north at the beginning
of next week and then stall in the vicinity of Georgia before
Wednesday. The drier air mass along with high pressure ridging
will result in drier conditions starting by midweek. The pattern
of building diurnal convection will carry into this period with
convective developments associated with sea breeze boundaries and
areas of collision becoming more inhibited later in the week as
PWAT and humidity values decrease. Daily high temperatures are
expected to experience a warming trend next week with max temps
rising into the upper 90s by the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Scattered SHRA/TSRA have developed well inland across ne
FL...expect coverage to increase over TAF sites through the
afternoon, with isolated activity continuing into the evening.
South to southeast winds 5-8 kts this afternoon, with light and
variable winds Tonight, becoming west 5-8kts by late Sunday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Winds will remain southerly through the rest of the weekend, with
enhanced winds from the southeast to south during the afternoon
and evening hours as the sea breeze develops. Seas of about 2-3
ft will prevail. Some stronger southerly winds expected Monday and
Tuesday to about 10-15 kt, possibly a bit stronger in the late
aftn. Should see a weak cool front move down from the north to
south late Tuesday and into Wednesday, with flow transitioning to
southeast and east by Wednesday.

Rip Currents: Another low-end moderate risk of rip currents of
with surf near 2 ft today and Sunday, with 2 ft wind-sea from the
east-southeast at 9-10 seconds and a 1-2 ft wind wave at 4
seconds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  95  76  94 /  20  70  40  60
SSI  78  90  78  90 /  30  60  30  40
JAX  75  93  76  94 /  30  70  30  50
SGJ  75  92  76  92 /  40  80  30  40
GNV  73  92  73  92 /  40  80  30  60
OCF  75  92  75  92 /  40  80  40  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$