Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
406 FXUS62 KKEY 281439 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1039 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 It has been a beautiful start to Friday across the Florida Keys this morning. GOES-16 visible satellite imagery depicts scattered swaths of high, wispy cirrus with isolated patches of shallow cumulus below across our area. KBYX radar has and is clear around the island chain at this time with some showers south of western Cuba the only notable precipitation feature at this time. A ridge axis analyzed across Central Florida has resulted in light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes along the Reef with more southerly flow located closer to South Florida. Temperatures along the island chain have already slid into the upper 80s with moist dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. The short term forecast calls for conditions a touch drier than the last few days. While this morning`s KKEY sounding has a decent PW value of 1.78 inches, a chaotic mid level wind profile mixed with unimpressive low level lapse rates will help keep a damper on convective development today. A lack of shower activity and cloud cover will allow for temperatures to reach highs into the lower 90s this afternoon. Slight chance PoPs are still held onto today both due to the time of year and a convective flare up south of western Cuba that could point outflow boundaries towards the Keys later this afternoon and evening. No changes to the forecast are needed at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, the low level ridge axis currently across the Florida Keys will shift north today through Saturday. As a result, light to gentle breezes will become easterly Friday night and Saturday. Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will persist Saturday night through Tuesday night. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the afternoon. Afternoon thunderstorms will be enhanced over western Cuba, suggesting convective outflows will spread northward late this afternoon and early evening. The stable and relatively dry boundary layer near the Keys will not be conducive for maintenance of these storms as they move north. We will reassess at 18Z. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1909, the daily record rainfall of 3.87" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 84 91 83 / 20 20 30 40 Marathon 91 83 90 82 / 20 20 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest