684
FXUS64 KMEG 151719
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1219 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will continue across the
area today. Dry conditions will finally return to northwest
Tennessee late tonight and area wide by Tuesday morning. Sunny
skies and dry weather will persist through early next week with
normal temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Rainy conditions will continue today across the Mid-South as a
remnant low, that was once Tropical System Francine, churns over
north Mississippi. Most prominent at 925 mb, but extending to
700mb, a moisture field moving from southeast to northwest keeps
rain bands training across the area.

As the low slowly sinks south, the aforementioned moisture field
will sink south as well allowing the rain bands to soak drought
stricken north Mississippi. There is very low probabilities for
thunder (~40% or less) with the shower activity today.
Thunderstorms would be most likely across north Mississippi,
particularly the Delta region. Thunder chances would increase if
there are any cloud breaks allowing surface based instability to
increase with daytime heating. With these bands, QPF for areas
south of I-40 is 0.5-1.5". Areas to the north of I-40 will see an
inch or less through tomorrow morning with the highest amounts
being in northeast Arkansas.

Impacts from the remnant low will finally end for northwest
Tennessee near midnight tonight. The entire Mid-South should
finally dry out by Monday evening. Monday night into Tuesday
morning, fog development is possible particularly over northwest
Tennessee under clearing skies, light winds, and a saturated
surface. On Tuesday, the sun will shine with near climatological
temperatures (in the mid to upper 80s) for September to return as
high pressure builds. As a synoptic blocking pattern sets up, this
pattern will continue through next weekend.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Slight CIG improvement may occur later this afternoon as the
current axis of precipitation shifts west. A few hours of VFR CIGs
may occur before another round of IFR returns overnight. Continued
SHRA will finally end Monday morning, allowing all sites to be
dry by the end of the period. Otherwise, winds will remain out of
the east at 10-12 kts.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...ANS