Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
568 FXUS62 KMFL 251628 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1228 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Models depict a rather typical summertime weather pattern continuing across SoFlo through the rest of today and tomorrow, with afternoon convection being mainly driven by sea breeze and outflow boundaries. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, driven by advection of moisture from the caribbean and E GOMEX. Latest model PWATs remain slightly over 2 inches over SoFlo, which combined with daytime heating and weak lifting aloft will result in some strong storms in the afternoon hours. Sea breeze boundaries will again become focal points for initial convection as the generally westerly flow collides with the east coast sea breeze. With the low-level winds remaining weak to moderate out of the SW, expect a convective regime of showers and thunderstorms first developing along sea breeze boundaries late this morning/early this afternoon, then moving interior/East Coast metro areas. The strongest cells will be capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds. Afternoon max temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s today and tomorrow, with heat index values around 100-105. Overnight lows be warm, dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and upper 70s to low 80s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Overall, the weather pattern of hot days and diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will continue through the long term period. In the mid-levels, weak troughing will linger over the region through Friday, sitting in a lull between two ridges over the South-Central US and eastern Caribbean, as well as troughing over the US eastern seaboard. Over the weekend, the mid-level troughing will be gradually pushed out as the mid-level ridging builds and shifts east over the northern Gulf states. With this synoptic setup, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Low-level winds will be out of the southwest through Friday, keeping the pattern of convection initiating along sea-breeze boundaries before moving over the interior and East Coast metro during the afternoon and early evening. By this weekend, winds will flip to out of the southeast, shifting the convective pattern to focus over the interior and Gulf Coast during the afternoon. Overall weak winds in the low to mid levels will continue to result in slow storm motions and localized flooding concerns for areas that are hit repeatedly or have poor drainage. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, with heat index values routinely reaching the triple digits each day, with some pockets reaching the 105 to 110 range by late in the week and over the weekend. Overnight lows will also remain warm, generally in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Periods of MVFR/IFR are likely this afternoon and through around 21-22Z as showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the area. Light and variable winds will be SSE to SW at 8-10kt through the rest of the afternoon hours, with the east coast sea breeze making flow erratic at times over the Atlantic terminals. Winds will again become light and variable after 26/00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Weak southwesterly winds will become moderate this afternoon and remain in place through the rest of the work week. Boating conditions will remain benign in general with seas 1-2 feet, except in the vicinity of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 91 77 92 / 50 70 30 60 West Kendall 75 91 74 92 / 40 60 20 50 Opa-Locka 77 91 76 93 / 50 70 30 60 Homestead 76 90 76 91 / 40 60 20 50 Fort Lauderdale 77 89 77 91 / 50 70 30 60 N Ft Lauderdale 77 90 77 91 / 50 70 30 60 Pembroke Pines 78 93 78 94 / 50 70 30 60 West Palm Beach 76 91 76 92 / 50 70 30 60 Boca Raton 76 91 76 92 / 50 70 30 60 Naples 79 89 79 90 / 40 60 30 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION...17 LONG TERM....CULVER