Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
072 FXUS62 KMFL 260503 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 103 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 731 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across the interior as well as the east coast metro areas this evening. This activity will slowly diminish as the rest of the evening progresses with the loss of diurnal heating. While most of the interior areas will be mainly dry during the overnight hours, additional convection may develop over the Atlantic and Gulf waters as well as the east and west coast during this time frame. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s along the coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Models depict a rather typical summertime weather pattern continuing across SoFlo through the rest of today and tomorrow, with afternoon convection being mainly driven by sea breeze and outflow boundaries. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, driven by advection of moisture from the caribbean and E GOMEX. Latest model PWATs remain slightly over 2 inches over SoFlo, which combined with daytime heating and weak lifting aloft will result in some strong storms in the afternoon hours. Sea breeze boundaries will again become focal points for initial convection as the generally westerly flow collides with the east coast sea breeze. With the low-level winds remaining weak to moderate out of the SW, expect a convective regime of showers and thunderstorms first developing along sea breeze boundaries late this morning/early this afternoon, then moving interior/East Coast metro areas. The strongest cells will be capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds. Afternoon max temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s today and tomorrow, with heat index values around 100-105. Overnight lows be warm, dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and upper 70s to low 80s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The forecast period begins with extended mid-level troughing and maintains weak southwesterly flow through the low levels. Mesoscale dynamics will be the primary driver of convective initiation. With ample boundary layer moisture present, both sea breeze boundaries will be areas of ascent to watch for daily shower and thunderstorm development. Localized flooding will be the main hazard to monitor given the weak flow pattern. Outflow boundaries may also become focal points for localized convection. Heading into the weekend, the troughing over South Florida will be pushed out by more extensive mid-level ridging. At 500 mb, a closed high should offer weak large-scale subsidence and maintain light deep-layer flow across the CWA along with adequate boundary layer moisture and near-normal PWATs. Additionally, our first notable Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume should advect into South Florida and provide some level of convective inhibition with drier air aloft. Depending on the evolution of the SAL, associated steep mid-level lapse rates could linger across portions of South Florida and keep the risk for thunderstorms elevated. With the lack of any appreciable synoptic forcing for ascent, convective coverage should be less widespread, with coverage favoring inland and SW parts of our CWA given a transition to an easterly flow. Temperatures will remain near our seasonal averages, with heat indices reaching the triple digits routinely. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR to start the 06Z TAF period with light and variable winds. Winds will become W/SW 5-10 kts after 16Z with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected which may result in brief flight restrictions. Winds will become light and variable again this evening after 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Weak southwesterly winds will become moderate this afternoon and remain in place through the rest of the work week. Boating conditions will remain benign in general with seas 1-2 feet, except in the vicinity of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 77 92 78 / 60 30 60 20 West Kendall 91 75 92 76 / 60 30 50 20 Opa-Locka 91 76 93 78 / 70 30 60 20 Homestead 91 76 91 77 / 60 30 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 90 78 / 70 30 60 30 N Ft Lauderdale 90 77 91 78 / 70 30 60 30 Pembroke Pines 92 78 94 79 / 70 30 60 20 West Palm Beach 90 76 92 76 / 70 30 60 20 Boca Raton 91 76 92 77 / 70 30 60 30 Naples 89 78 90 78 / 50 20 50 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM....Pine AVIATION...CMF