203
FXUS63 KMKX 131415 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
915 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoky conditions aloft and near the surface from Canadian
  wildfires are expected today into this evening, resulting in
  minor visibility reductions. The Air Quality Alert from the
  Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources continues across all
  of southern Wisconsin.

- Dry weather is generally expected through the early portions
  of the week, then increasing chances (20 to 60 percent) for
  multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday
  through Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 915 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Middle level to high clouds will continue to slowly shift
eastward across the area through today. Otherwise, areas of
smoke from Canadian wildfires area expected to move into the
area today and linger into this evening, as the northwest flow
at 500 mb helps push this activity into the area. Daytime
heating and low level mixing may allow for some of the smoke to
mix down toward the surface.

Upstream visibility is generally in the 3 to 5 mile range,
though it may be more like 5 to 6 mile visibility in southern
Wisconsin. Still, expect a hazy look to the sky into this
evening, with the Air Quality Advisory from the Wisconsin
Department of Natural Resources remaining in effect.

The smoke should gradually move out of the area and be more
confined to northern Wisconsin later tonight into Monday. Highs
in the lower to middle 80s are expected today. A southeast lake
breeze may develop later this afternoon from Milwaukee
southward.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Today and Tonight:

Quieter end to the weekend as high pressure skirts south of the
Great Lakes today. Will see lighter westerly winds prevail
across much of the area. Meanwhile upper-level northwesterly
flow is set up across the Upper Midwest on the backside of the
departing trough. This looks to bring in smoky conditions from
the Canadian wildfires to WI. Expecting hazy and filtered skies
from the smoke today, but also could see it mix down to the
surface. The latest HRRR runs continue to depict a swath of near
surface smoke to work its way across the Upper Mississippi
River Valley and into WI through the morning. Overall expecting
hazy surface visibility around 5-6 miles at times through the
day. Otherwise, WI DNR has issued a Air Quality Alert for these
smoky conditions as it reaches unhealthy levels, especially for
sensitive groups. Conditions are progged to improve through the
evening as more zonal upper-level flow builds aloft and
southerly surface flow moves into the region.

Hazy skies may also impact temps today given the filtered
sunlight, but still looking at near normal temps and relatively
drier dewpoints. Highs still look to top off in the upper 70s to
lower 80s across southern WI, while overnight lows dip into the
60s.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Monday through Saturday:

Mostly quiet weather is expected early in the week under the
upper level zonal flow. Southerly flow in the mid and low levels
will keep up WAA up. Highs will be warming Monday into the
upper 80s and in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday. Similar to the
end of last week, there will be a small chance around 15% for
some showers Monday afternoon. A weak frontal boundary will be
moving through the state and could provide enough lift with
diurnal heating and moisture to get some isolated
showers/storms.

A more active pattern will move in arrives later Tuesday
through Thursday. The zonal flow will remain in place until
Wednesday,but multiple shortwaves will move through the upper
level flow. A trough in the Pacific Northwest will begin to
swing east into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region for
Wednesday. At the sfc a frontal boundary will remain mostly
stationary across northern/central Wisconsin and northern
Michigan. This frontal boundary will be a focus point for
multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Models are all over
the place on timing and placement of individual rounds. Its
tough to predict which ones will move into southern Wisconsin
and when especially this far out in advance. Each rounds
evolution will depend on the round prior to it. This system will
slowly move out to the east overtime leading to drier
conditions for the end of the weekend and into the weekend.
Guidance suggests high pressure moving in for Friday and
lingering in the Great Lakes Region for the start of the
weekend.

Temperatures for the midweek and into the weekend will be right
around normal/average in the low to mid 80s. Persistent
overcast skies and rain could drops temps a bit lower at times,
but will have to keep an eye on the rain evolution as we get
closer to mid week.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 915 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Middle level to high clouds will gradually push eastward today
across the area, exiting to the east this evening. Smoke from
Canadian wildfires should reduce visibility to 5 to 6 miles at
times into this evening, perhaps a little lower north of the
Madison and Milwaukee terminals. The smoke should move out
later tonight into Monday and be more confined to northern
Wisconsin.

Light west winds are expected today, with a southeast lake
breeze possible from the Milwaukee to Kenosha terminals by
later this afternoon. Light southwest winds tonight will remain
southwest on Monday, with a southeast lake breeze possible again
by late afternoon from the Milwaukee to Kenosha terminals.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 915 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Modest southwest to west winds this morning will become south
to southwest this afternoon into Monday, as high pressure around
30.0 inches moves across the southern portions of the Great
Lakes region. Increasing southerly winds are expected Tuesday
into Wednesday, as a low pressure system around 29.7 inches
develops across the Central High Plains. This low should move
toward and across the region Wednesday night into Thursday
night.

Wagner/Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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