004
FXUS62 KMLB 020658
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
258 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES:

- Temperatures will remain above normal, as warm as the mid 90s in
some locations. The risk of heat stress will increase as we move
from Independence Day and into the weekend.

- Continued daily storm chances, ranging from 30-50% near the coast
to 40-60% over the interior, including Greater Orlando.

- Major Hurricane Beryl, the earliest hurricane to reach category 5
on record in the Atlantic Basin, is moving through the eastern
Caribbean. Beryl, and its impacts, are still forecast to stay well
south of Florida.

---------Synoptic Overview----------

Early this morning, deep-layer ridging is centered over the Red
River Valley (TX/OK). A pair of troughs bookend this feature, one
over the Northern Rockies and another exiting the Canadian
Maritimes. The cold front approaching Florida has dissipated to our
north, but it has left above-normal tropospheric moisture over the
state.

Over the next few days, the mid-level ridge will flatten, with its
axis roughly along the I-10 corridor from coast to coast. This will
hinder significant northward movement for Hurricane Beryl as it
churns through the Caribbean Sea. More information on this powerful
storm can be found at hurricanes.gov. By this weekend, ensemble
guidance has trended somewhat deeper with a trough digging across
the Upper Midwest, which may flatten the ridge even further.
However, H5 heights are predicted to exceed the 90th percentile of
climatology (well above normal) through the entire forecast period
locally. Less than 40 meters differentiated the 01/12Z clusters over
Florida, indicating excellent large-scale model agreement.

Near the surface, the ridge axis will begin lifting north over the
next 24 hours, then remain north of the district through early
Friday. This weekend, it will shift once again closer to
Central/South Florida.

Overall, no significant changes were required from the previous
forecast package. There will be a daily chance of showers and
storms, ranging from 30-50% near the coast to 40-60% over the
interior and Greater Orlando area. Heat-related impacts are still
expected to increase by this weekend.

-----Sensible Weather & Impacts-----

Today & Tonight:

Light SSE flow today will allow another healthy sea breeze
circulation. 0-3 KM mixing ratios remain well above normal, around
13 g/kg, indicating a very moist boundary layer. Expect widely
scattered storms to develop along the advancing sea breeze near and
west of I-95 early in the afternoon, with a potential sea breeze
collision near / west of Orlando in the early evening hours.
Overall, storm chances range from 40-50% near the coast to 60% over
the interior and Greater Orlando. Gusty winds to 45 mph, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rain from 1-3" are the potential
threats from today`s storms.

Highs should reach 90-93F near the coast and 92-95F over the
interior. Similar to yesterday, peak heat indices should climb to
102-107F. Lows overnight will fall to the mid 70s, except upper 70s
around urban Orlando and the barrier islands.

Wednesday - Friday:

During this timeframe, including Independence Day, the near-surface
ridge axis will get a kick north of here, allowing light SE PBL
winds. The embedded sea breeze will propagate inland each day, and a
collision with the Gulf breeze should occur west of Orlando. Held
onto likely rain/storm chances (~60%) near and west of Orlando on
Wednesday as H5 T`s and available moisture are somewhat more
favorable for convection, lessening to around 40% along the coast.
For the Fourth of July & Friday, H5 T`s jump closer to
climatological maxima as heights build. With a slight nudge down in
total moisture, we yield no more than 30-50% storm chances, once
again highest well inland.

Temperatures remain hot but fairly steady. Low/mid 90s are forecast,
with mid/upper 70s at night. There are some indications that the
boundary layer may become slightly less humid, conceivably helping
dew points to mix down to the low 70s in the afternoon hours. We
will go with peak heat indices 101-107F, just below Heat Advisory
criteria. Nonetheless, this still exhibits a Moderate to locally
Major HeatRisk; those celebrating the holiday outdoors should take
precautions to beat the heat, such as staying well-hydrated and
seeking breaks in the shade, A/C, or pool.

Next Weekend & Beyond:

As the upper ridge flattens out, the thermal ridge will also sink
closer to our latitude this weekend, characterized by H85 T`s
approaching +20C. Combined with seasonably high dew points,
oppressive heat and humidity remain the #1 weather concern this
weekend. Statistical guidance continues to suggest fairly widespread
mid 90s over all but the immediate coast (low 90s) from Saturday
through Monday. Overnight low temps will struggle to drop much below
80F in urban Orlando and remain 4-7F above normal for all locales.
Peak heat index readings will nudge a couple of degrees warmer,
perhaps reaching into our Heat Advisory territory (>= 108F)
especially near and north of Greater Orlando. As the HeatRisk enters
the Major range for more of us, it will be important to find ways to
cool off and stay hydrated each afternoon.

H5 temperatures will hang out around near or over the 99th
percentile of climatology through the weekend, keeping mid-level
lapse rates poor and likely stifling sustained deep convection.
However, near-normal total moisture and above-normal 0-3 KM mixing
ratios suggest that the daily sea breeze and late-day collision
should be enough to spark widely scattered storms. Areal coverage
should peak 40-50% each day, perhaps as high as 60% over the far
interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Today-Saturday... The surface high pressure axis will lift from near
Central Florida today to the north of the local waters through at
least early Friday. Light SSE winds (5-12 KT) turn more to the SE
through mid and late week, as a result. The daily sea breeze
circulation will locally enhance winds near the coast each afternoon
before veering offshore and becoming light overnight. Seas 2 FT or
less today, building slightly to 2-3 FT for the remainder of the
week. A few showers and storms are forecast, especially during the
overnight hours offshore and nearshore during the morning and early
afternoon. However, a lot of dry weather is expected and overall
favorable conditions will persist for both offshore and inshore
boaters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions expected thru much of the TAF. Light SSE flow will
increase after 16z-18z as the ECSB begins to push inland. Along
the breeze isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible, with the highest
coverage expected from the Treasure Coast terminals to
MCO/ISM/LEE by 22z-02z Wed. TEMPOs were included at the
westernmost sites (ISM/LEE) but may need to be added at a few
more locations in future TAFs, if TSRA confidence increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  77  92  76 /  50  30  40  20
MCO  93  77  93  76 /  60  40  60  10
MLB  91  78  91  78 /  50  20  40  10
VRB  91  76  91  76 /  50  20  40  10
LEE  93  78  94  78 /  60  60  60  30
SFB  94  77  93  76 /  60  40  60  20
ORL  94  78  94  77 /  60  50  60  20
FPR  91  76  91  76 /  50  20  40  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Schaper