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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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347 FXUS62 KMLB 011758 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 158 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 158 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The east coast sea breeze has developed, moving inland of the coastal terminals. A late sea breeze collision is forecast across the interior. TSRA TEMPOs at MCO/ISM from 23/02Z as boundaries collide. An earlier TEMPO for LEE (21/24Z) as convection moves eastward along the west coast sea breeze. Not as confident in TSRA impacts at SFB and have only kept mention of VCTS. VCTS through the afternoon along the Treasure Coast with a TSRA TEMPO at SUA (20/23Z). Southeast winds develop behind the east coast sea breeze, otherwise, southerly flow prevails. Winds generally 10 kts or less, diminishing after sunset. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Sfc analysis shows Atlc ridge axis extends westward across central FL producing a light south flow this morning. A SE sea breeze will develop and push slowly inland. GOES-16 precip water product combined with the early morning radiosonde data from XMR and TBW show that noticeably drier air has moved in the mid and upper levels. This will lead to a much later lower coverage of storms today compared to yesterday. There remains higher moisture across southern sections so the inland moving sea breeze should spark scattered showers/storms over Martin/St Lucie this aftn after collision with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. There is an outflow boundary lifting NW across the Treasure coast/Lake O region from earlier convection offshore S FL. This boundary could spark isolated showers and storms into early aftn but this boundary will likely lose its definition as the east coast sea breeze develops and takes over. A very late collision over the north interior should generate the best chance for rain/storms around and just after sunset. The only update to the forecast was to lower PoPs through early afternoon across northern sections, esp Lake and Volusia counties. No significant changes to winds or temps. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Today-Friday... An axis of high pressure will move from Central Florida today northward toward the Carolinas by midweek. SSE winds from 10-15 KT today will subside to around 10 KT while shifting slightly toward the SE from Tuesday through the rest of the period. The daily sea/land breeze circulation will form, locally enhancing breezes in the afternoon and turning winds light southerly or southwesterly during the overnight hours near the coast. A few showers and storms are possible, but a lot of dry time is forecast. Seas will range 2 FT or less through tomorrow, then 2-3 FT through Friday. Intracoastal and inshore boaters will notice a light to moderate chop. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 92 77 92 / 40 40 20 40 MCO 77 93 77 93 / 50 70 20 60 MLB 77 91 78 90 / 30 50 20 40 VRB 75 91 77 91 / 30 50 20 40 LEE 78 94 79 93 / 50 70 20 60 SFB 77 94 77 93 / 50 60 20 60 ORL 77 93 78 93 / 50 70 20 60 FPR 75 91 76 91 / 30 50 20 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Kelly AVIATION...Law