207
FXUS62 KMLB 271418
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1018 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Isolated to scattered showers streaming across western Florida
from the GOMEX this morning, with some of the activity pushing
into east central Florida, mainly into Lake/N Volusia. West to
southwest flow will persist today, albeit slightly stronger than
previous days, as the ridge axis of high pressure over the west
Atlantic stays south of the region today. The east coast sea
breeze is forecast to form this afternoon and push inland.
However, due to the stronger offshore flow, the sea breeze may be
pinned closer to the coast, and may not develop at all north of
Cape Canaveral. Scattered showers and lightning storms will
develop through the afternoon ahead of the west coast breeze,
with highest coverage (PoP 60 percent) of showers and storms this
afternoon and into early evening will be along the I-95 corridor
as boundary interactions with the east coast sea breeze occur.
Lingering drier air aloft will favor a few stronger storms
possible this afternoon/evening. Main storm threats will be
frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds of 40-45 mph. Locally
heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches will also be possible in any
stronger or slower moving storms. Hot and humid conditions once
again today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and heat
indices of 102-107 degrees. Forecast remains on track with only
minor adjustments of rain chances through tonight.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

IMPACT:
- Afternoon/evening storms, highest chance (60%) for coastal
  terminals with VIS/CIG restrictions in their vicinity.

Light southwest winds continue this morning. A few showers will
try to reach LEE through 16Z from the west. For 27/18Z-23Z,
40-50% chance for storms at MCO/Greater Orlando terminals,
increasing to 60% along the coastal terminals. Persisted with
previous TAF package trends, only tweaking timing based on latest
guidance. Short-fused TEMPOs may be required for MCO if
convection becomes more widespread over the metro area. Sea breeze
remains pinned at the coast through the afternoon. VFR outside of
storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Today-Tonight...Subtropical ridge axis remains south of the area
today, which will lead to a continued W/SW flow through this morning
around 10 knots. Winds veer to the S/SE this afternoon and remain
around 10 knots as the east coast sea breeze forms, but remains
pinned toward the coast. Seas will range from 1-3 feet.

Scattered offshore moving storms are forecast, especially from mid
afternoon through early evening. Some may produce strong gusty winds
and frequent lightning strikes as they move off the coast into the
nearshore waters.

Friday-Monday...Ridge axis begins to shift back northward, but
remains south of the waters on Friday before moving back northward
into the coastal waters this weekend through early next week.
Boating conditions remain favorable as wind speeds continue around 5-
10 knots, becoming onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze forms
and moves inland. Seas around 1-2 feet, up to 3 feet offshore at
times. Scattered offshore moving storms will continue to be possible
each afternoon and evening, mainly on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  96  76  93  76 /  60  20  60  30
MCO  94  76  94  77 /  50  10  60  20
MLB  94  76  92  76 /  60  30  50  30
VRB  94  74  93  75 /  60  30  50  30
LEE  93  77  94  77 /  50  10  60  20
SFB  95  76  94  76 /  60  10  60  20
ORL  94  77  94  78 /  60  10  60  20
FPR  94  74  93  75 /  60  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Heil