123
FXUS62 KMLB 111045
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
645 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

- Afternoon and evening storms are forecast, especially across
  the southern counties; frequent lightning, gusty winds 45-55
  mph, and locally heavy rainfall are possible.

- Heat and humidity continue with peak heat index values 100-107F
  into the weekend; visitors and residents are encouraged to stay
  cool and well-hydrated.

- Scattered rain and storms are forecast each afternoon and
  evening with coverage increasing into next week; strong storms
  and localized flooding possible.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Today... A surface ridge axis in place across south Florida,
gradually lifts northward and into central Florida. A wave of
locally higher moisture lifts in vicinity of the ridge axis. This
should generally favor scattered to numerous (50-60%) shower and
storm development along portions of the Treasure Coast and across
Okeechobee county today. Further north, the forecast remains rather
persistent with the development of the east and west coast sea
breezes. Coverage mostly remains scattered in vicinity of I-4 this
afternoon with a late increase in storm coverage as a sea breeze
collision occurs. Although, shear profiles remain weak, high surface
instability and moisture could allow for wet downbursts with
localized wind gusts up to 55 mph. Slow moving storms could also
allow for localized rainfall accumulations of 2-3" which could
result in ponding of water on roadways or minor flooding of urban or
low lying areas.

High temperatures remain in the low 90s across the south where cloud
cover and rain chances will be highest. Further north, highs reach
the mid 90s. Muggy conditions will produce peak heat index values
between 102-106F, and there is a Moderate to Major heat risk across
much of the Orlando metro today.

Saturday-Sunday... The surface ridge axis gradually retreats as weak
troughing builds offshore the southeast U.S. coast into Sunday.
Increasingly humid conditions and continued rain chances (~60%) are
forecast through the period. Temperatures hold slightly above normal
this weekend, ranging the low to mid 90s. When factoring in
humidity, maximum apparent temperatures are expected to climb
between 102-107F, and conditions could near Heat Advisory criteria.
A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will affect individuals without
effective cooling and adequate hydration. To reduce risk of heat
stress, outdoor weekend activities should be limited to the morning
hours ahead of peak heating while still incorporating frequent
breaks in an air conditioned building or the shade.

Some relief from the heat may come in the form of afternoon rain
chances each day. Weak synoptic flow should allow the development of
the east and west coast sea breeze each day, helping to kick start
showers and storms. However, peak coverage (60%) remains favored in
the late afternoon and evening as mesoscale boundaries interact and
a sea breeze collision occurs. Ridging above 700mb will generally
limit development of well organized strong storms due to weak shear
and warming temperatures aloft. However, favorable low level lapse
rates should still be supportive enough for strong updrafts which
can mix down dry air aloft (DCAPE > 1,000 J/kg). Therefore, an
isolated strong storm threat remains. Primary hazards associated
with isolated stronger storms include wind gusts up to 55mph and
lightning strikes. Minimal steering flow will lead to slow and
erratic storm movement. A localized heavy rainfall threat continues
where repeated rounds of slow moving storms may occur.

Monday-Thursday... A weak wave of mid level vorticity lifts
northwestward from the Bahamas and over the Florida peninsula. At the
surface, global models have hinted at a broad area of low pressure
developing in vicinity of Florida, and a wet pattern looks to set up
from Monday onward. The current forecast calls for rain chances
around 70% through the extended period, and could see gradual trends
higher as confidence increases in time. A saturated air column with
PWATs greater than 2" could fuel a flooding rainfall threat, but
there are some significant model inconsistencies in daily QPF output
that will need to be monitored with future forecast updates. While
widespread totals are uncertain, more localized daily instances of 2-
4" will be possible across areas which receive multiple rounds of
showers and storms. This could result in ponding of water on
roadways and minor flooding of urban or low lying areas.

Temperatures fall a few degrees into next week with increasing rain
chances, and highs generally range the upper 80s to low 90s each
afternoon. Lows temperatures hold steady in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A surface ridge axis remains in place across the local waters late
this week before retreating eastward early next week. Light
southwest winds generally hold, backing south to southeast along the
coast as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Seas of 2-3 ft
gradually subside, becoming widely 2 ft by Sunday. Scattered showers
and storms remain in the forecast through the weekend before a more
unsettled pattern takes over next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR prevails for much of the TAF period, outside of brief TSRA
impacts. Light SW/S winds this morning gradually veer SSE at
coastal terminals by 16z/17z as the ECSB develops. A moisture
plume moving northward will find support in the sea breeze for
SHRA/TSRA development as early as 15z-16z near SUA. TEMPO groups
have been added for Treasure Coast terminals ~16z-19z, followed by
TEMPOs at select inland sites after 20z. Lower confidence exists
in MVFR/IFR impacts at LEE/DAB/TIX/MLB today, though AMDs/future
TEMPO groups remain a possibility. Convective activity will
dissipate after 02z-03z, giving way to clearing conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  93  76 /  40  20  50  10
MCO  95  76  95  76 /  60  20  60  20
MLB  91  76  91  76 /  60  10  50  10
VRB  91  73  91  73 /  60  10  50  10
LEE  93  76  94  76 /  50  10  60  10
SFB  95  76  95  76 /  60  10  60  10
ORL  95  77  95  77 /  60  20  60  20
FPR  90  73  91  73 /  60  10  60  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Schaper