602
FXUS62 KMLB 280846
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
446 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Key Messages...

-Scattered to numerous afternoon/evening showers and storms forecast
 to continue over the next several days, with a few stronger
 storms possible each day.

-Hot and humid conditions persist, with highs in the low to mid
 90s and peak heat index values around 102-107.

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic
nudges slowly northward today into south FL, with low level offshore
flow generally continuing but also weakening. This will allow the
east coast sea breeze to form and push a little farther inland than
yesterday. While PW values may drop a tad through early morning,
model guidance indicates these values rebound into the afternoon,
increasing to around 2.0-2.3 inches. This very moist airmass and
daytime heating should allow for scattered to numerous showers and
storms to develop, mainly into the afternoon/early evening. However,
there may be a slightly earlier start to some showers and isolated
storms across Lake County into the morning hours. Hi-res and MOS
guidance all indicate higher coverage of convection today, so have
raised PoPs slightly to 60-70 percent across much of the area.
Greatest coverage of storms will occur with any boundary collisions
from storm outflow and sea breeze boundaries, which look to occur
west of the I-95 corridor across east central FL. Westerly steering
winds weaken through late day, but may still be sufficient for
storms moving back toward the coast and offshore through late
afternoon/evening.

Some stronger storms will again be possible today, with the main
threats including frequent lightning strikes and strong wind gusts
to 40 to 50 mph. With offshore winds decreasing, low level shear
will also be weaker, and therefore threat for any severe weather
looks low. However, as typically is the case during the wet season,
an isolated severe storm or two can`t be completely ruled out.
Locally heavy rainfall up to 2-4 inches will also be a concern
today, due to the weaker steering winds and moist airmass in place.
This may lead to temporary minor flooding of roadways and poor
drainage areas. Convection will gradually diminish through late
evening, with drier conditions expected overnight.

It will be another hot and humid day, with highs reaching the low to
mid 90s and peak heat index values around 102-107 before storms and
increasing cloud cover provide some relief later into the afternoon.
Conditions will remain warm and muggy into tonight, with lows in the
70s.

Saturday-Sunday...Ridge axis of high pressure continues to lift
northward across the area into the weekend, with low level winds
weakening. This will allow the east coast sea breeze to move even
farther inland through the weekend. A very moist airmass remains in
place on Saturday, with PW values remaining around 2.0-2.3 inches,
which will again favor higher rain chances up to 60-70 percent
across much of the area. Then a modest drop in moisture and a slight
increase in onshore flow on Sunday focuses greatest rain chances
inland, with PoPs ranging from 50 percent along the coast and around
60 percent across the interior. A few stronger storms will continue
to be possible each day, with strong wind gusts, lightning strikes,
and locally heavy rainfall continuing to be the main threats.

Highs in the low 90s and humid conditions will continue to produce
peak heat index values around 102-107. Overnight lows remain in the
70s.

Monday-Thursday...Weak front moves into the southeast U.S. into
early next week and will gradually weaken, with subtropical ridge
axis continuing to generally extend across the FL peninsula.
Sufficient moisture remains in place for at least scattered showers
and storms each day, with greatest rain chances over the interior
where late day boundary collisions will be favored. Ridge aloft over
the south central U.S. will extend eastward and into Florida, with
highs in the mid 90s returning from some interior locations, and
remaining in the low 90s at the coast. Heat index values are
forecast to continue to peak around 102-107 each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Today-Tonight...Relatively light offshore flow around 5-10 knots
will become E/SE into the afternoon up to around 10 knots closer to
the coast as sea breeze forms and moves inland. Winds then veer to
the S/SW into tonight, remaining around 5-10 knots. Seas will range
from 1-3 feet. Main concern for boaters will be the potential for
some storms to move back toward the coast and just offshore into the
afternoon and evening. Frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds
will occur with any stronger storms.

Saturday-Tuesday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west
Atlantic moves back northward across the waters into the weekend and
early next week. Southerly flow each morning will become onshore
into the afternoon as sea breeze will be able to form each day and
push inland. Sea breeze generated showers and storms each afternoon
should largely remain over land areas, but isolated to scattered
showers and storms will still be possible over the coastal waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

IMPACT:
- Numerous afternoon/evening storms expected beyond 28/18Z.
  Restrictions to IFR, gusts to 35 KT possible.

Quiet weather is forecast through the overnight. A few showers
may impact LEE as early as 13Z. Sea breeze looks to penetrate a
bit farther inland this afternoon, sparking 60-70% storm coverage
from mid-afternoon through early evening. Storms will likely
affect the Greater Orlando area terminals and DAB first before
drifting/developing toward MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA from 19Z-29/00Z.
Prevailing VFR outside of storms, with SW winds 5-12 KT becoming
ESE in the afternoon at the coastal terminals. TSRA TEMPOs were
required at all local area TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  90  75 /  70  40  70  40
MCO  93  77  92  76 /  70  30  70  40
MLB  92  76  90  76 /  70  40  60  40
VRB  92  75  90  75 /  60  40  60  40
LEE  92  78  93  77 /  70  30  70  40
SFB  94  76  92  76 /  70  30  70  40
ORL  93  77  92  77 /  70  30  70  40
FPR  92  75  90  75 /  60  40  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Heil