Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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397 FXUS62 KMLB 220930 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 530 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 517 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Deep tropical moisture through the weekend will spark scattered to numerous (50-70%) showers and storms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. There is a Marginal Risk for locally excessive rainfall. - Peak heat indices of 102-107 this weekend. - Rain chances remain at or above normal next week. Today...Deep moisture has overspread EC FL with precip water values 2.0"-2.2". Wind flow has become southerly around subtropical high over the SW Atlc and remnants of AL92 nearly stationary over coastal GA. Sea breeze will develop by late morning and push inland, sparking scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms just inland from the coast then developing inland thru the aftn and early evening. Rain chances near 50 percent coast and 60-70 percent inland. The deep moisture combined with weak steering flow will produce slow moving storms, capable of producing a quick 1-3 inches in a 60-90 min period with locally higher amounts possible especially assocd with boundary collisions. This will likely cause localized flooding and standing water issues especially where heavy rains have fallen recently. Dewpoints in the mid 70s will produce peak heat indices 102-107. Not much change for the upcoming week. Mid level ridging stays in place across the southern tier of the U.S. while sfc flow becomes SW to W as ridge axis slips south of the area. This offshore flow will not be strong so the Atlc sea breeze will be able to form each day, producing a SE wind off the ocean. Deep moisture with precip water values of 2+" will support scattered to numerous aftn storms and into the evening. While this pattern will provide some needed rain for those who still need/want it, some areas will get too much. Temperatures are forecast to remain very warm with high dewpoints. Max temps in the lower 90s coast (due to the slightly delayed sea breeze) and mid 90s inland will produce peak heat indices 102 to 107. Overnight temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 517 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 High pressure centered offshore over the Atlantic will produce a southerly flow this weekend 7-10 knots, enhanced from the SE 10-14 knots behind the sea breeze near the coast. The trailing ridge axis will shift south across the waters early next week ahead of a weak front. As a result, sfc wind flow will develop a more offshore (southwest to west) component but the sea breeze will be able to form each day. Deep moisture will remain place keeping rain and storm chances high with offshore moving storms a concern next week. Seas 3-4 FT today subsiding 2-3 FT Sun then 2 FT Tue- Wed. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VCSH at LEE/DAB early this morning, diminishing around 07/08Z. Brief MVFR CIGs have been observed at MCO/ISM with low confidence in MVFR prevailing. However, TEMPOs may be needed. Otherwise, prevailing VFR is forecast outside of convection. South to southeast flow becomes onshore into the afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. VCSH included at the coastal terminals as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. VCTS is mentioned at the inland terminals as the sea breeze moves westward and coverage increases along a sea breeze collision. Will reevaluate if thunder is needed along the coast with the next TAF package issuance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 74 91 75 / 60 50 70 30 MCO 92 75 91 75 / 70 50 70 30 MLB 89 75 89 75 / 50 30 60 30 VRB 90 75 90 74 / 50 30 50 30 LEE 93 76 92 76 / 70 60 70 30 SFB 92 75 92 75 / 60 50 70 30 ORL 92 76 92 76 / 70 50 70 30 FPR 90 74 90 73 / 50 30 50 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Law