Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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209 FXUS62 KMLB 300549 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 149 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A very moist airmass remains in place, with BKN/OVC mid level cloud deck around 12-15kft persisting across the area. Can`t rule out a few showers/isolated storms near the Treasure Coast terminals of KVRB-KSUA through early this morning. Otherwise, rain chances will ramp up into the late morning and afternoon as east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be able to develop across the area this afternoon, but steering flow looks to focus this activity across the interior, west of I-95. Have therefore limited any tempo groups for TSRA over the inland TAF sites from around 19-22Z for now. However, have kept VCTS mention at the coast for convection initially developing along the sea breeze. Showers and storms will diminish into the evening hours, with some drier air then moving into the area overnight. Winds will be light and variable through early morning, with winds picking up slightly out of the NE by late morning and then out of the E/SE through the afternoon around 7-10 mph as sea breeze moves inland. && .UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Current KMLB radar imagery shows most of east central dry with isolated showers over the southwestern interior, as well as the local Atlantic waters. Current temperatures are in the mid 70s to low 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Mostly dry conditions are expected to continue into the overnight hours, however guidance indicates that a convergent line will develop over the local Atlantic overnight with isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms. Isolated showers (~20-30%) and lightning storms (20%) remain in the forecast overnight into early Sunday morning along the coast south of Port Canaveral with a slight onshore northeasterly steering flow component along the coast. Otherwise, dry conditions with decreasing cloud cover and low temperatures in the low to upper 70s are forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Atlantic subtropical ridge axis will remain across the area maintaining favorable boating conditions. Light and variable winds expected again into Sunday morning, but flow will develop a more southerly component next week. Winds will become onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland, with speeds around 10 knots each afternoon. Seas around 2 feet Sun-Mon will increase up to 3 feet offshore by mid week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible over the coastal waters through the period. A higher coverage of showers and storms are possible Sunday morning esp south of Sebastian Inlet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 74 92 77 / 50 30 50 20 MCO 91 74 93 76 / 70 40 60 20 MLB 89 75 91 77 / 40 20 50 20 VRB 89 74 91 76 / 50 20 50 20 LEE 92 76 93 77 / 80 50 60 30 SFB 92 75 93 77 / 60 30 60 20 ORL 92 76 93 77 / 70 40 60 20 FPR 89 74 91 76 / 60 30 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fehling AVIATION...Weitlich