Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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387 FXUS62 KMLB 280049 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 849 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 849 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Current-Rest of Tonight...A rather active pattern this afternoon brought numerous strong thunderstorms with a few severe warned cells to east central FL. Driven by multiple boundary and sea breeze collisions, storm motion was erratic but generally moved from the west to the east. Highest observed winds were recorded at Cape Canaveral above 50 mph, with another complex of boundaries colliding near the site of the KMLB radar this afternoon. This prompted a brief funnel cloud to develop and unconfirmed tornado (as of 9pm), with multiple reports of damage shared from nearby neighborhoods in Melbourne. The collision has continued southward along the intracoastal waters this evening, arriving to the Treasure Coast currently. While storms have lost daytime heating, a few still could be rather strong with gusty winds and frequent lightning, with the continued potential of a brief spin up as activity moves offshore. Storms will dissipate by midnight, with quiet conditions forecast overnight. Lows will fall to the mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 803 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A very active afternoon of thunderstorms with activity from MCO east to the Atlantic producing gusty winds greater than 35 knots at several terminals over the last several hours. As of 00Z, the boundary collision resides near KVRB, with iso/sct storms expected through 02-03Z at the three southern terminals, with brief MVFR reductions as storm push eastward. Activity will clear near midnight with variable winds overnight. Another round of afternoon storms anticipated tomorrow, beginning at northern terminals near 17-18Z, pushing south along the sea breeze collision through 21-22Z. VFR outside of convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 357 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will remain across the Florida Straits into tonight. SW flow has shifted SE/S this afternoon behind the sea breeze, and will shift back to SW overnight, with speeds generally around 10 KT. Seas will be 2 ft across the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft across the offshore waters. Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible this afternoon through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters. Friday-Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge axis begins to shift back northward, but remains south of the waters on Friday before moving back northward into the coastal waters this weekend through early next week. Boating conditions remain favorable as wind speeds continue around 5-10 knots, becoming onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Seas around 1-2 feet, up to 3 feet offshore at times. Scattered offshore moving storms will continue to be possible each afternoon and evening, mainly on Friday and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 93 76 92 / 10 60 30 60 MCO 76 93 77 92 / 20 60 20 60 MLB 76 92 77 90 / 50 50 40 50 VRB 74 93 75 91 / 60 50 30 50 LEE 77 93 78 93 / 10 60 20 60 SFB 76 93 77 93 / 10 60 30 60 ORL 77 93 78 92 / 20 60 20 60 FPR 74 93 75 90 / 60 50 30 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Schaper