347
FXUS62 KMLB 011758
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
158 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The east coast sea breeze has developed, moving inland of the
coastal terminals. A late sea breeze collision is forecast across
the interior. TSRA TEMPOs at MCO/ISM from 23/02Z as boundaries
collide. An earlier TEMPO for LEE (21/24Z) as convection moves
eastward along the west coast sea breeze. Not as confident in TSRA
impacts at SFB and have only kept mention of VCTS. VCTS through
the afternoon along the Treasure Coast with a TSRA TEMPO at SUA
(20/23Z). Southeast winds develop behind the east coast sea
breeze, otherwise, southerly flow prevails. Winds generally 10 kts
or less, diminishing after sunset.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Sfc analysis shows Atlc ridge axis extends westward across central
FL producing a light south flow this morning. A SE sea breeze
will develop and push slowly inland.  GOES-16 precip water
product combined with the early morning radiosonde data from XMR
and TBW show that noticeably drier air has moved in the mid and
upper levels. This will lead to a much later lower coverage of
storms today compared to yesterday. There remains higher moisture
across southern sections so the inland moving sea breeze should
spark scattered showers/storms over Martin/St Lucie this aftn
after collision with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. There is an
outflow boundary lifting NW across the Treasure coast/Lake O
region from earlier convection offshore S FL. This boundary could
spark isolated showers and storms into early aftn but this
boundary will likely lose its definition as the east coast sea
breeze develops and takes over. A very late collision over the
north interior should generate the best chance for rain/storms
around and just after sunset.

The only update to the forecast was to lower PoPs through early
afternoon across northern sections, esp Lake and Volusia counties.
No significant changes to winds or temps.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Today-Friday... An axis of high pressure will move from Central
Florida today northward toward the Carolinas by midweek. SSE winds
from 10-15 KT today will subside to around 10 KT while shifting
slightly toward the SE from Tuesday through the rest of the period.
The daily sea/land breeze circulation will form, locally enhancing
breezes in the afternoon and turning winds light southerly or
southwesterly during the overnight hours near the coast. A few
showers and storms are possible, but a lot of dry time is forecast.
Seas will range 2 FT or less through tomorrow, then 2-3 FT through
Friday. Intracoastal and inshore boaters will notice a light to
moderate chop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  92  77  92 /  40  40  20  40
MCO  77  93  77  93 /  50  70  20  60
MLB  77  91  78  90 /  30  50  20  40
VRB  75  91  77  91 /  30  50  20  40
LEE  78  94  79  93 /  50  70  20  60
SFB  77  94  77  93 /  50  60  20  60
ORL  77  93  78  93 /  50  70  20  60
FPR  75  91  76  91 /  30  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Law