Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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458 FXUS62 KMLB 212245 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 645 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 645 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions expected outside of showers/storms. Showers near the Orlando terminals slowly diminish through this evening, with rain chances around 20% overnight through the morning hours. Plentiful moisture and a return to a more typical sea breeze circulation should promote another round of storms, most prevalent near and west of MCO, tomorrow afternoon. This necessitates TS TEMPOs for a few of our inland terminals after 22/19-20Z. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Currently-Tonight... Invest AL92 is located offshore near the northeast Florida coast which continues to move west-northwest towards the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts. East to southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15-20mph this afternoon will become light and variable overnight. Current radar imagery shows scattered showers and isolated lightning storm, mainly over the interior of east central Florida. Scattered showers and isolated to scattered lightning storms are forecast into the early evening with the main lightning storm hazards expected to be gusty winds, occasional lightning strikes, and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Southeast winds at 5-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph this afternoon are forecast to become light and variable overnight. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid to upper 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Saturday... Invest AL92 is expected to move west-northwest to the north of east central Florida over northern Florida/southern Georgia into Saturday. High moisture with PWATs in the 2-2.4" range will help sea breeze driven scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered lightning storms to develop into the afternoon Saturday with the greatest chance for showers and storms along and near I-4, as well as the western interior (PoPs ~ 60-70%). The main hazards with lightning storms will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 30-40mph, and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values at 100-105 along the coast and 102-110 inland are forecast under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. Sunday-Thursday (modified previous discussion)... Patchy fog is forecast Sunday morning mainly between 5am and 9am. Patchy ground fog will have the potential to reduce visibility to a half mile or less at times mainly over the Treasure Coast and northern Lake and Volusia counties before dissipating into the mid morning hours. Upper level ridging stays in place across the southern tier of the U.S., weakly influencing the overall pattern here in Florida. H500 falls across the southeast and Mid Atlantic are expected Sunday into Monday as a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region. Surface flow will remain southerly, backing southeast during the afternoon as the sea breeze forms. Light flow becomes increasingly SSW through midweek next week. With PW around 2"+ through much of this period, expect at least scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms each afternoon and evening as sea breeze and storm-scale boundary collisions occur over the peninsula. PoPs go up to 60-70 percent later in the weekend and next week. The NBM remains too high with PoPs (a common bias at least here in FL) so we continue to cap forecast values. Regardless, this stretch of days could provide some additional much needed rain for parts of the area. Temperatures through the extended stay warm, generally in the low 90s. Heat indices approach 100-107 Sunday and then the 102-110 range Monday and into midweek. Nighttime temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 334 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Currently-Tonight... An area of low pressure (Invest AL92) continues to move west-northwest to the north of the local Atlantic waters. East to southeast winds at 10-15 kts are forecast to subside at 5-10kts overnight into Sunday morning. Seas are forecast to build to 3-5 ft with up to 6 ft in the offshore Volusia and Brevard county waters through this evening before diminishing to 3-5ft overnight. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are generally expected to move offshore this evening and into the overnight with the capability of producing cloud to water lightning strikes, moderate to brief heavy rainfall, and wind gusts to 30-40mph. Sat-Tue (previous discussion)... Improving boating conditions this weekend into early next week, with south to southeast winds remaining under 15 kts this weekend, then veering more SW early next week. A sea breeze near the coast should develop each aftn, however. Seas 3-4 ft becoming 2-3 ft through the period. Greater daily shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected, especially early next week, with increasing chances for offshore- moving convection each afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 90 74 91 / 40 70 40 70 MCO 77 92 75 91 / 40 70 40 70 MLB 77 90 76 89 / 30 50 40 70 VRB 77 90 75 90 / 30 50 40 70 LEE 77 93 76 92 / 40 70 40 70 SFB 76 92 75 91 / 40 60 40 70 ORL 77 92 76 91 / 40 70 40 70 FPR 76 90 75 89 / 30 50 40 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fehling AVIATION...Heil