868
FXUS63 KMPX 241214
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
714 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers & thunderstorms expected this morning. A Marginal Risk of
severe weather (mainly damaging wind and hail) across western
Wisconsin this afternoon.

- Cooler Memorial Day weekend with periodic chances for rain,
  mainly on Sunday.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Now through this evening...IR satellite imagery this morning showing
a broad area of cold cloud tops extending from SW Minnesota to
northern Kansas. Beneath the cloud cover, radar reflectivity
showing an MCS that is producing quite the pre-dawn stir in
Nebraska and Iowa. Meanwhile at the Minnesota/Iowa border, a
discrete warm front is providing some buoyancy to where
convection has developed. These storms will gradually make there
way north/northeast and eventually become less organized as
they decouple away from the better forcing environment over
Iowa. Prior to sunrise, the threat of severe weather remains low
however near-term RAP Soundings showing elevated instability of
~1500 J/kg along with weak low-level shear of 30kts. Therefore
a few cells across southern MN may become strong and briefly
produce sub-severe hail and gusty winds. Rainfall is expected to
have a few hours of pause late this morning before
redevelopment occurs mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor
this afternoon. Another round of severe storms is possible for
this region but the ongoing convection early this morning will
have influence on the environment later this afternoon as noted
in the latest SPC Convective Outlook. Highest confidence for the
strongest convection will be tied to our Wisconsin counties
with the primary hazards being mainly wind and hail, however a
weak tornado cannot be ruled out given shear profiles. Rainfall
amounts remaining on track with previous thinking ranging from
0.25" to 0.50" across central MN and southern MN to western WI
seeing 0.50 to an 1.00" Temperatures today will near be near the
70 deg mark. Winds will also be increased given the passage of
this cold front. Western MN could see 30-35mph wind gusts before
decreasing this evening.

Memorial Day weekend...For the eager beavers ready to kick off their
memorial day holiday plans, overall the forecast looks fairly decent
and slightly cooler. A series of shortwaves associated with an
upper- level troughing pattern out to our west will eject
several shortwaves towards the central CONUS. Saturday will be
quiet except for increasing cloudiness in the afternoon with
temps in the low 70s. Sunday looks like "worst" day of the
weekend as likely PoPs have been introduced with the latest NBM
guidance, especially across southern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin. Sunday temps will range in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Memorial Day Monday features partly cloudy skies with a chance
of showers/storms and highs in the upper 60s. According to the
MN State Climatology office, this temperature forecast falls in
slightly cooler than what we typically see for this holiday
weekend. As there have been some hot Memorial Days in the past.

Looking into the latter half of next week, temperatures will remain
in the 70s with periodic rain chances but also potential to dry
out for a few days and slightly warmer than average
temperatures as we head into June.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

TSRA shield continues to make steady progress northward,
eventually reaching all TAF sites shortly after initialization.
Main degradation is to visibility, with brief drops into IFR
range, while ceilings will only drop into the MVFR range.
Precipitation may be heavy at times and contain bouts of TS at
the terminals. This swath of rain will shift north of the TAF
sites by late this morning, with at least a moderate potential
of additional development this afternoon. Any redevelopment is
not expected to have the coverage as the current swath, but
CB/TS is still a viable possibility. Clearing conditions are
expected this evening through overnight tonight as the low
pressure system responsible for this rain moves off to the
northeast. Breezy winds are expected throughout, with sustained
speeds around 15kts and gusts around 25kts, while directions
veer from SE to SW to SW over the next 24 hours.

KMSP...TSRA to continue through around 15z, with potential for
additional TSRA this afternoon. Overall confidence in TS drops
off from about 17z onwards, so will need to see how radar trends
evolve. Winds will run generally SE through this morning, then
winds will gradually veer to SE and W, including a brief period
with winds at 220 direction with speeds around 15G25kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind E to NE 10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC