822
FXUS64 KOUN 301952
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
252 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms remain
possible through early evening along the quasi-stationary front
as it slowly shifts north of I-40 and transitions as a warm front
late tonight. A relatively narrow zone of 3000 to 4000 J/kg CAPE
exists near the boundary, along with weak mid-level lapse rates.
Storms that develop could have narrow updrafts that could pulse up
and produce hail and gusty winds. Given weak shear, however,
storms are not anticipated to become organized enough to produce
very large hail. DCAPE is roughly 1000 or lower, and so winds
aren`t anticipated to be terribly high. Still, lightning, sub-
severe hail, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall are possible.

The 599 dam high pressure ridge observed over north Texas this
morning weakens slightly while sliding to the east as a trough
departs the Pacific Northwest deepens over the northern high
plains tomorrow. The associated mid-level height falls will result
in a surface trough taking shape over the northern plains. Weak
low-level flow strengthens and veers tonight with the LLTR
intensifying tomorrow. With mostly sunny skies, daytime mixing
will aid in raising temperatures and wind speeds with widespread
100+ deg temperatures tomorrow. Issued a Heat Advisory for areas
generally along/east of I-35 for tomorrow afternoon and evening
with heat index values up to 110 degrees possible for these areas.
An Excessive Heat Warning was considered for some of our eastern
and southern counties. However, a 4 to 6 degree spread in modeled
dewpoints made this less certain. Will re-evaluate with tonight`s
package.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The surface trough axis moves into the central plains by Tuesday
morning and the trailing front pushes into northwest Oklahoma late
Tuesday before becoming quasi-stationary. With veered low-level
flow and a pronounced LLTR (H850 temperatures near 30 deg C over
northwest OK), Tuesday should be the hottest day of the upcoming
week, though hot conditions will continue through Thursday (along
with heat headlines). There is a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms across northwest Oklahoma on Tuesday afternoon and
evening with large hail and damaging wind gusts possible. With the
boundary remaining nearly stationary, light rain will remain
possible over northwest and northern Oklahoma through Wednesday
night.

A cold front then moves into the area late Thursday or early
Friday, and temperatures trend downward Friday and Saturday. Model
spread in maximum temperatures for Friday is quite large (roughly
10 degrees). For now, forecast highs are only in the upper 80`s
for the northern 2/3 of Oklahoma with low 90`s in store for
Saturday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Large area of rain and storms this morning across northern
Oklahoma has reinforced a cold front farther south toward the I-40
corridor. There has been some MVFR and IFR conditions across parts
of northern Oklahoma this morning and may be slow to clear at WWR
this afternoon. Otherwise, some isolated convection may occur
this afternoon near this boundary but chances currently look too
low to include at any TAF site.

Skies expected to clear across the area tonight with light
southeast to south winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  77  99  80 /  40  20   0   0
Hobart OK         96  78 102  80 /  30  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  99  80 102  80 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           89  75 100  77 /  30  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     86  73  99  79 /  80  20  10   0
Durant OK         97  77  99  78 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031-032-037>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...30